rebecca

Membre depuis
8 avr 2017
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Maple Leafs de Toronto
Deuxième équipe préférée
Oilers d'Edmonton
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1 nov 1987
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Toronto
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248
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4
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Tomboys rule.
Forum: NHL SigningsFri at 11:52 am
Forum: NHL SigningsThu at 11:13 pm
Forum: NHL SigningsThu at 11:03 pm
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Brian2016</b></div><div>Also gotta take into account the fact that Morrissey should see substantial exposure to WPG's elite forwards both at 5on5 and on the PP. His offensive numbers should probably be higher than Provorov's assuming Ghostesbehere retains the #1 PP role. Maybe it's just b/c I've seen Provorov a lit more on tv and in person b/c the Flyers play the Devils 4 times a year and PHI gets more national TV exposure, but I just think he's the total package of 2-way skill, physicality, and high hockey IQ. Before his regression last season I thought he was a future Norris contender...He still might be, but who knows.</div></div>

And perhaps I’m bias being in Toronto and watching the Jets (tho not as often as I like as late game is usually the Canucks 🙄 on CBC) on Saturday nights (Hockey Night in Canada).

There is merit in choosing the Provorov deal over the Morrissey deal, don’t get me wrong. Both are being paid at what will be “bargains” for a top pair D-Man in a few years time. And they could be more even. So there is value to be had.

Provorov could still be a Top-30 defender one day in the NHL but he’s got a ways to go. Morrissey is already there, IMHO, as a top pair LD and in the “Top-30” conversation.

Morrissey actually doesn’t see a tonne of PP time - significantly less than Provorov in fact. Last season Morrissey had 103m and in 17/18 just 26m. Provorov has averaged almost 140m per season on the PP thru his first 3 seasons. Just for comparison.

And thank you. 🤓🤷🏼‍♀️
Forum: NHL SigningsThu at 10:36 pm
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Brian2016</b></div><div>Provorov's deal seems to have higher upside than Morrissey's, but w/ a little more risk. I think I'd take Provorov straight up over Morrissey any day though. He's also 2 years younger.</div></div>

Technically speaking, when comparing these contracts, Morrissey is actually 3y older (as this contract doesn’t kick in until 2020/21). For $500,000 *more* the Flyers are getting 2 *fewer* years although you could argue that the last 2 years of Morrissey’s contract could be the least valuable as he could start declining by then (age 31/32).

I’d agree in general with your assessment - that the Morrissey contract is safer but has less potential maximum upside. That said I think the likelihood of there being a net positive from the contract is much greater with Morrissey. He’s already worth that much - arguably more - so that makes its value more solid.

Provorov is unequivocally not worth that much now and thus has to continue to improve to even have the contract break even. That said, he has a high pedigree and is still considered on track to be a decent - but no longer elite - top pairing defender. His ceiling is still a titch above Morrissey’s but Morrissey is much closer to his ceiling than Provorov (thus more likely to reach it). If Provorov meets these lofty expectations then it’s a win. *If*.

If I had to put numbers on it, would look something like this:

Provorov contract massive bargain - 12%
Morrissey contract massive bargain - 4%

Provorov contract significant bargain - 22%
Morrissey contract significant bargain - 52%

Provorov contract fair value - 28%
Morrissey contract fair value - 32%

Provorov contract significant anchor - 28%
Morrissey contract significant anchor - 10%

Provorov contract massive anchor - 10%
Morrissey contract massive anchor - 2%

Likelihood of contract being an anchor?
Morrissey 12%
Provorov 38% (&gt; 3x)

I think that’s why Provorov’s contract has about 3x the “No’s” as Morrissey. That said the potential for Provorov’s contract to be a massive bargain is greater (also by 3x). However the likelihood of such a good outcome happening occurs only 8% of the time vs 25% of the time for either contract being a bust. So pick which is more important? The Provorov deal is just too risky for my tastes in a cap world.
Forum: NHL SigningsThu at 9:53 pm
Forum: NHL SigningsWed at 11:22 pm
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>F3ruS</b></div><div>What do you think about adavanced stats 5v5:
Offense:
<img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocOffWi/1819/WPG/lainepa98/" alt="lainepa98">

With Laine the team is: -13% ( i think he had only 1 good month last year(november), then 9 goals in the 57 games from December to April.)
Without Laine the team is: -2%

Difference: -11% offense = really bad compared to league average and other teammates

Explanation on offense:
+ number = good
- number = bad

Defense:
<img class="for_img" src="https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocDefWi/1819/WPG/lainepa98/" alt="lainepa98">

With Laine the team is: +14% :cry :cry :cry
Without Laine the team is: -1%

Difference: +15% defense = crazy super bad compared to league average and other teammates

Explanation on defense:
+ number = bad
- number = good

Another type of adv stat(under 50 it's bad):
CF% = 46.2

The eyetest also doesn't lie, together with the -24 on the plus-minus chart, and the lack of defensive effort on his side. These stats are close to Ristolainen level of stats...
I just think he would fit for the East a lot much better(maybe with some other finnish teammates as well), then on the west, where things are much more physical and defensive oriented.
Yes, the 40-40-30 goals 3 seasons are really amazing, but are goals enough in today's NHL? I mean i heard he was semi-injured in the last season, and maybe that's why he couldn't bring his game to the next level. So i would not be surprised on a bridge deal, but last time i heard:
:jets want long term(6+years)-small money and Laine doesn't want long-term contract nor small money = He wants short term + big money together, which is impossible imo in the current cap situation for Winnipeg to offer...
So Winnipeg willing to risk a short-term-big money contract?
8 million $ @ 3 years and banking on the fact that next 3 years he will at least once put up some positive signs( = big improvements, which will be minus numbers on the pictures i linked)) on the defensive side on the ice.
We know he will get his goals in next 3 years, thats not the problem. But in playoffs, scoring goals value is decreasing(less powerplays, more video analysis on his shot by goalies, better defense on other teams+ goalies etc...)
I think his trade value is still insanely high and i can see some teams, which will overpay to get him and risk the long contract.
That would be super benefecial for winnipeg = more chance to win the stanley cup in the long run...

<b>Also will Laine ever agree on a 6 million $ @ 3 years contract, because i highly doubt he will. 5.5 mill $? No way</b>, even though i think that would be a fair price based on his performance.
Stralman got 5.5 mill $ contract @ 3 years.
Is Laine really saying to himself: "I worth as much as Stralman, an aging old defender, who most of the time injured...
...So i just take this 5.5 mill $ contract and prove it in next 3 years that i worth 10mill - 11 mill+ $."
I just don't see this happening. I know Stralman got overpaid, but why Laine shouldn't think he should get overpaid as well? He is young, scoring a lot of goals etc...

I think his agent looking at the Skinner contract to be honest... Not in the 5.5 mill - 6 mill $ range at all. You get what i'm saying?
Skinner got with his 2nd contract = 5.7 million $ @ 6 years, almost 10% of the 2012 caphit!
That's a lot closer to 8 million $, and currently it looks like trends also shifted because players want to get paid even at their 2nd contract! Their stats looked extremely smilair in points per game 2 years for skinner and 3 years for laine 0.8 ppg... So how is he accepting around 6 million $.... no way...
Probably the biggest difference on remaining RFA's demand and offer: Laine and Winnipeg.

Do you remember what Aho did? :hurricanes lowballed him for lots of months with like a long-term 6 million $ offer and they never increased it... he decided to sign the offersheet the first minute possible... for only 8.5 mill $...
Why? Becasue he saw if they're offering 6 million $ to him, he will never even get 8 million $, so 8.5 mill $ is a dream scenario for him(compared to 6), and he also knew with his agent 100% that Carolina will match it in 10 minutes...
He also knew Carolina would never even think about offering him 10 million $, so 8.5 million $ actually a good deal for him...

Maybe 6.5 million $ @ 1 year, hmm , but then next year his price could be even more insane, if he puts up his best season ever... So that's not good for Winnipeg again...

If i'm Winnipeg GM, im also going for 6+ years &amp; small money route or another option is trade. With a small bridge deal, only Laine will win, and the Jets might not even make the playoff next year...

6.5 - 7 million $ @ 2 years would make a lot of sense. But then again, that's a win for Laine... But maybe last minute winnipeg GM says "YES" to that type of deal... maybe... or holdout until december 1.(it worked out for Nylander hahaaa :tearsofjoy)
So yeah i can see right now 7 million $ contract @ 1-3 years or trade... so trade seems still a viable option... but maybe thats just me... and winnipeg will pay him the big bucks at the end...

For fun, EW Contract Projections: 2019 - Laine:
7.1 million $ @ 7 years with a 27% chance... hahahaa ^^
7.5 million $ @ 6 years with a 24% chance : better but still no way Laine says yes to this...
5 million $ @ 2 years with a 10% chance : uhummm :tearsofjoy


Connor: Based on Ehlers, and he is better than Ehlers, can't see him signing for less than 7.5-8 mill+ $ if its @ 6 years = long term...

Laine: Based on all above, my prediction for Laine, if not traded: 7.66 million $ @ 3 years

Imo Laine is more interesting right now, than the Marner "case" ;)</div></div>

Um, so the questions in there? Yes, Laine has significant deficiencies in his 5v5 play and also his consistency is a major issue. Some streakyness is okay - but averaging under 3 goals per month (as he did thru the last half of the season) isn’t gonna cut it. I don’t think he’s in the strongest position with a lot of the advanced data out there and the lack of an offer sheet to date likely shows his camp that he won’t be able to get what he wants. I agree that a 5.5 to 7.0M contract for 2-3y seems low, but he hasn’t proven himself as a full NHL player, aside from being able to score tonnes of goals in bunches. Thus far the negatives outweigh the positives and I can’t imagine Chevelldayoff or any other GM losing that discussion. In consideration of all that, a 2y show me deal for $6M would be more than fair and I’d be shocked if it goes above that in the 2y range, or $7M AAV in the 3y range. He can’t even threaten to leave as there’s no way he can make that much in Liiga or the KHL either so at some point soon - likely by the start of camp - they’ll cave and accept their offer.
Forum: NHL SigningsMon at 1:30 pm
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>F3ruS</b></div><div>:lightning is keeping McElhinney, our GM said it multiple times, he is our backup goalie for next season.
Best goalie duo in NHL with Vasi. Together with a strong D core should work well.
I'm hoping for under 2.25 GAA at end of the year. To prepare for playoffs this time.
We know that scoring 4-5 goals in the playoffs is not gonna happen... unlike in regular season...

So bye-bye Domingue.. i liked him... but that's life...
He played good for us last year, but no doubt we improved at Goalie position with McElhinney :cool

Am i the only one who thinks, that Winnipeg will trade Laine for a good package?:huh

It will be interesting what kind of contract he will get, if he stays in Winnipeg... i suspect it's not gonna be a good one... (not good for Laine) :grimace</div></div>

For sure, I have heard the same things - but it’s not over til it’s over. McElhinney isn’t a spring chicken and he could have aged 5y in one summer and they change their minds.

But that’s aside the point. The central thrust is that TB, and several other teams (including WPG with Comrie), will have at least solid replacement level to halfway decent back-ups as their 3rd goalies and who will go thru waivers. Some will be picked up to be sure.
Rather than lose them for nothing, I anticipate teams like TBL and maybe even WPG getting deals in place before that happens.

WRT to your Laine hypothesis - I highly doubt a trade is going to happen this summer. Closer to the end of his next contract (like with Trouba)? Getting warmer. I reckon, in fact I’m almost certain, that Laine will be locked up on a 2y or 3y bridge deal with an AAV in the 5.5M to 7.0M range (higher for the extra year). After last season there’s a lot of questions and likely some variance between how much money he wants and how much he will be able to get. Conner could also go the bridge route but my money is on him signing for 6y.
Forum: NHL Signings 7 sep à 13h30
Forum: NHL Signings21 aoû à 14h03