19 avr 2018
Deuxième équipe préférée
Canadiens de Montréal
1 jan 2001
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<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BuFfaLOFaN</b></div><div>I do believe the current roster is good, and could be slightly better than ours now, on offense, but defense and Goalie is worse.iMO. Goaltending for sure...defense is similar, I just think Dahlin at LD is better than the new.additions, Myers does help.</div></div>
I should have included Hutton as he was a free agent and would most likely have been signed in an alternative universe, so at least the GK would be the same.
Not having Dahlin is HUGE. Because of the Salary cap a team can really only afford a Top 10 Center, Defenseman, Goalie and decent role players to be in the playoff hunt. Some teams can afford more but I think in a couple of years Reinhart, Eichel, Skinner and Dahlin will consume about 50% of the cap space leaving little cap space for Olofsson, Montour, Miller, Mittelstadt (on the average they will be asking for $6,000,000 each or about 30% of the cap) and the other 15 players will have to split about $20,000,000 among them. I hate to say it but, the window for Buffalo will start to close in 2 years when the last four players will be looking for big paychecks and Buffalo will need to trim the roster and play younger perhaps less talented players.
On the bright side Dahlin in a few years will be the NHL top defenseman as the current candidates are aging (Burns, Hedman, Weber, Subban, Karlsson etc) and he is better than any of the younger crop (Reilly, Carlson, Heiskanen etc). But I left him off of the team as the team would have to have finished last in 2018, and that may not have happened in my alternative universe. I did not want to have to explain how the Sabres could have a good young team as I posted above and still finish last in 2018. As you can see it was a struggle to explain that Jokiharju, Miller, Montour, Skinner etc would still be on the team.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aedoran</b></div><div>Ok 2018 really? So you weren't rebuilding the 6 seasons you missed the playoffs prior to that?</div></div>
No we were not rebuilding we were giving away prospects and picks for other teams cast offs. The team finished last in 2018 so if that is the consequence of rebuilding, I would rather not tear the team down. Yup the worse rebuild ever up until the end of 2018, then a true rebuild was started.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BuFfaLOFaN</b></div><div>Look at the goalies also, we lost our best.goslie imo, and not having Dahlin is a huuuge loss.</div></div>
Let's look at the GK at the end of this year. Did Lehner ever perform as a championship GK when he was in Buffalo? I thought the year we had Johnson, Nillson and Ullmark as his back up they all had better w/l % than he. What did Lehner do to bring a championship here? I will repeat 81 78 and 62. BTW the year we had 81 pts he only played 21 games. So the best record the Sabres had while he was here, he was not the primary GK.
I know not having Dahlin is huge and 6 #2 D-men will replace him, but were you happy finishing last in 2018. The Hockey Writers Association looked at the improvements Botterill made during the off season and predicted the Sabres would make the playoffs. If the talent is there, but the players are not performing up to the expectations, it time to clean house. Getting Dahlin should have been out of the question and an unexpected bonus for poor on ice results, the team was not predicted to be the worse team in the NHL.
BTW as I stated above if the rebuild is not rushed then the team has a shot at Laine. I know it would never happen but Laine (or Matthews or Dubois or Tkachuk), Zadorov, McNabb, Myers, Cernak, White, Armia, Compher, and Roslovic gives the team talented depth which would make the team very difficult to defend against. That my friend is the talent that was lost by rushing the rebuild.
As a final thought, maybe the team is still bad in 2018 and gets Dahlin anyway. LOL
I am not making any assumptions about drafting Draisaitl over Reinhart or Sergachev of Nylander, both taken directly after the Buffalo picks. I am adding the players traded away and players taken with the picks traded away. I did not presume that Aho could have been drafted with the 2nd traded when O'Reilly was acquired or any other wild guesses like getting Konecny instead of White or Beauvillier over Roslovic.
All of the players are easily obtainable with the assets that were on hand.
White is projected to be solid #2 center I put him at RW,
Armia has developed into a good PK power forward.
McNabb is always near the top of his team's +/-
Zadorov is always among the league hit leaders.
Cernak is considered one of Tampa's up and coming defensemen.
Myers has always been reliable and other GM's know this as he was given a 5 year contract at $6,000,000/yr.
The team is at least as good the one on the ice now, with more home grown talent.
Let me add, this is a very young team with most players still room to be better.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Stan_Bowman</b></div><div>you forgot to reverse the Jokiharju trade.</div></div>
I am presuming all the same players being drafted, so Nylander is still available to be traded for Jokiharju! I will give up Jokiharju if you agree that the Sabres probably would have finished last in 2016 as they did in 2014 and 2015 with a shot at Matthews or Laine instead of Nylander.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Nick623</b></div><div>If Armia is your 2nd line RW you are still in a rebuild...</div></div>
Why, Armia is off to a great start 3 goals in 5 games and last year he had 13 goals in only 57 games (nearly 20 goals over 82 games), playing less than 16 minutes a game. BTW are you saying Sobotka is better than Armia?
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aedoran</b></div><div>When did Buffalo start their rebuild?
How many GMs have they had during their rebuild?
How many coaches have they had during their rebuild?</div></div>
Well this is presuming all of the draft choices made my Murray were the same, as well as the picks made by the teams to which he traded the picks.
But to answer the question, the rebuild started when Dahlin was drafted and all of the garbage was out of the locker room.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Nick623</b></div><div>And the Montour, C Miller, Jeff Skinner etc...</div></div>
Why, Miller and Skinner were picked up for 2nd round picks, and Montour for a first. There is nothing here that is unreasonable, as all of those picks were available.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BuFfaLOFaN</b></div><div>Defiently worse, I would love to undo ROR trade though</div></div>
Why is this team definitely worse? The only loss is Dahlin (I know that is a big reduction), but Compher, Armia, White, and Roslovic are better than Okposo, Sobotka, and Rodrigues. Zadorov, McNabb and Cernak are all quality Defensemen. But the team probably finishes last in 2016 and has a good chance to get either Matthews or Laine instead of rushing the rebuild.
So you want to keep a captain who said he lost his love of the game. Captains are suppose to instill the team with fire in their bellies and hold players accountable, not give up. Let me add 81, 78 and 62 so how did his presence in the line up improve the team? He was traded to a team that missed the playoffs by one pt in '17-'18 and added not only him but Perron, Bozak and Binnington but we are all led to believe that his 50% FO wins during the playoffs is what lead the Blues to the finals and the cup the following year.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hedman77</b></div><div>You don’t base them off one game</div></div>
No we cannot, but it was the first time Buffalo won a regulation game in Pittsburgh in six years, so for Buffalo it was monumental.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BuFfaLOFaN</b></div><div>IK...but that's what makes this different/fun</div></div>
Yup, all for fun. Not to be taken seriously.
BTW how can I do <a href="/users/gretzkyghosts" target="_blank">@gretzkyghosts</a> for another ACGM?
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MikeyThePensFan</b></div><div>Yesterday was a really strong performance by the Sabres but also an extremely weak performance by the Penguins.</div></div>
Yes, the best game I saw the Sabres play in years. To dominate the Penguins on opening night in Pittsburgh was remarkable.
So here is the question, who will the Sabres jump over to make the playoffs?
Bolts, Bruins, Leafs, Caps, Canes, Devils and Panthers IMO are play off bound.
IMO Wings, Sens, Jackets, Habs and Islanders are all vulnerable.
We need to add 3 more teams to that list, Rangers, Flyers and Penguins?
So while I love the improvements, last night's performance will have to be duplicated at least 50 more times if the team has any chance.
If Buffalo was in the Pacific, I would say the Sabres have a great chance, but in the east 99 pts may not get a team to the play offs.
I posted a team <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1463282">https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1463282</a> with my predictions. I think it demonstrates how difficult it will be to make the play offs.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>hanson493</b></div><div>imo hes projected to get 164 goals this year so 20 seems a little low :tearsofjoy :tearsofjoy :tearsofjoy</div></div>
Only if he can play against the Penguins 81 more times. Maybe the GM's could pass him around league so he gets to play against his old team more often.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MikeyThePensFan</b></div><div>He might injure himself from slipping and falling every time he steps onto the ice.</div></div>
Two years ago there were many posts of him being traded to Buffalo for a 2nd or McCabe. Since my time is limited i only watched Sabre games and he never made a huge impression on me when the Sabres played the PEN's, so I thought those returns were a bit exaggerated. When he finally came Buffalo for a 4th, I still was a little concerned because he only had 30 pts and mused why he did not have more assists playing with Crosby.
Now that I get to watch him every game, I do not remember him falling down every time he stepped on the ice but I am very impressed with his speed, shot, energy and willingness to fight for the puck.
Playing 3rd line minutes with Jimmy and Casey I think he will get between 15 and 20 goals.
Let me add, Vesey and Sheary are playing for contracts and are both UFA (so is Mittelstadt, but he is only an RFA), so we may see career years out of each of them.
That is why I just do not know where the Sabres will finish this year. They are better, but so are the Rangers, Leafs, Devils, and others. But with so many free agents all playing for contracts, it is very difficult to handicap. Last night, half way through the first period, I told my GF that they are playing as a playoff team. Can they do that every night?
But that is a subject for a different post. To reiterate 15 to 20 goals is my best guess.
It is fun to guess what the season will bring, so thanks for your comments
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sabres89</b></div><div>Is it crazy to say our first line could have 3 30 goal scorers? I think the first line could hit 95. Last year eichel had 28, skinner had 40. Olofsson could be a better finisher than reinhart. Wouldnt shock me.
Second line looks right. 25 for reinhart, 20 for johansson, 10 for sheary.
Third line is probably too high- vesey 10, mittelstadt at 12, rodrigues at 12.
Im not sure if the 4th line breaks 25, but the bar is so low that one good week could put them over.
40 from the d- i just dont know, i dont think dahlin has the shot to put up more than 10. Can you get 30 from montour/miller/risto/jokiharju? Maybe a couple from mccabe and pilut? It seems reasonable, but wasnt it 2 years ago we didnt have a single goal from our d until december? Hard to handicap goals from d.</div></div>
No it is not crazy for that first line to break 90 goals,
I figured if Sheary played with Reinhart he would be close to 20 goals. 55 goals is a bit more than 18 goals each, IMO that is not far off of the mark if Johansson can play well.
Third line, I said I was a bit optimistic. But IMO Vesey will get his life time average of 17, Mittelstadt and Rodrigues will be playing for contracts and will get more than your estimate of 12. Mittelstadt was a flop and had a dozen and Rodrigues got 9 goals playing with Larsson, Sobotka, Girgensons, Sobotka and Sheary. Get him a decent center and winger he will do better.
Fourth line had 25 goals last year, if they are allowed a little freedom, more OZ starts and with more offensive minded defensemen I added about a goal to each of their totals. BTW remember Girgensons and Larsson gave us 11 goals while starting in the OZ only 16% of the time.
Last year the defense contributed 35 goals. I only added 5 more for Dahlin (he had 9 in his first year so I added a couple more), as well as Montour (he had 8 for the season and 3 in 20 games with Buffalo) and Miller being on the team then entire year. I think the defense will add more offense.
BTW our goal guestimates are spread out different, but are pretty close. I think my guess is about 10 to 15 higher than yours and it turns out my math was wrong because I wanted a team total of 250 and my total is 260, so I will adjust my total to 250.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Mike_Gartner</b></div><div>math is a little off. you have 260 goals listed above, at an increase of 34 goals from last season.
buffalo improved a bit over last season, but not 34 goals worth...</div></div>
Nuts you are correct, I meant it to be 250, Thanks for correcting me.
An stronger Dahlin while adding Vesey, Johansson and Olofsson IMO could easily add 24 goals.
Let me correct my math error and reduce the total to 250.
I guess winning 70% of the 50 faceoffs taken during the preseason, does not deserve any praise. All teams carry face off specialists, while I did not think Sobotka would be that player, he has a very good life time FO % that may have earned him an unexpected spot on team.
Scandella lead the defense with goals and shots on net and only Miller and Nelson had a better +/- among all of the defensemen, but of course why would any one in their right mind praise a player for performing better than the rest of the team.
Girgensons, on the other hand, had the best +/- among all forwards and only Nelson was better among the entire team, so let's not recognize hard work, perseverance and results.
I was actually surprised at how well all three of them played this preseason.
BTW what a terrible job JB has done. He hired one of the best GK coaches in the league, stole Jokiharju, got Miller for nearly nothing, added secondary scoring and the team now has 7 players who if given the ice time could easily get 15 to 20 goals. Yup let's go fire him.
But go ahead and give up on the team.
Let me add, nearly all NHL teams have their crash line designed to shut down the other team. Our crash line happens to be Girgensons, Larsson and Okposo. Girgensons and Larsson had the lowest OZ% of only 16% last in the entire league while achieving nearly a 50% corsi. By contrast CBJ utilize Dubinsky as their crash line center, he had an OZ% of 20% but only had a corsi of 45%. BTW Dubinsky only had 14 pts last year and earned nearly double of Girgensons and Larsson combined. I am not sure how many playoff games you watched last year, but CBJ used Dubinsky in many of the defensive zone face offs, just as Larsson was used by Housley last year.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>wojme</b></div><div>There's still time</div></div>
Yup, and while the Atlantic is tough, and the Sabres will most likely miss the playoffs, the team is better.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>F50marco</b></div><div>I thought Sobotka was going to Russia? (Well I didn't actually think that, i just assumed from all the BUF AGM's stating he was)</div></div>
LOL, and you believed the BUF AGM's?
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mondo</b></div><div>i assumed that botterhill and kruger were steering the team in the right direction - is there some stuff going down that i'm missing?</div></div>
Well, your presumption is correct, and casual observer would recognize that.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Captain_Jack</b></div><div>Thats cuz he was suppose to be waived... he wont play in the minors</div></div>
I do not know why he is on the team, Maybe he will play on the fourth line, giving Buffalo 2 good FO men.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Spanky227</b></div><div>getting more for Vesey than you gave up.. interesting.</div></div>
If he has 16-18 goals at the TDL, I could easily see a 2nd. Kevin Hayes had one year with more goals than Vesey, had only 14 goals at the TDL and the Rangers got Brendan Lemieux, round 1 pick in the 2019 draft (Ville Heinola) and conditional round 4 pick in the 2019 draft.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BuFfaLOFaN</b></div><div>Easily could happen if he plays to line with Eichel...</div></div>
Yup, the team will be better in 2019-20 than last year, but IMO the Sabres are in a tough conference and division and will need close to 100 pts to make the playoffs.
Give all of the UFA's decent playing time, trade them all at the TDL and build for the future.
Next year, Cozens, Asplund, Thompson, Olofsson etc will be better than Vesey, Sheary, Larsson, Girgensons etc. Continue to draft and trade well, develop the prospects and 2021 could be the year the Sabres finally make the playoffs.