drewjenks

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12 sep 1995
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Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 22 heures
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Price_is_the_goat</b></div><div>Weber is still a number 1 defensemen, Muzzin is not. That gap on the right shot would take years to fill, as we wait for Brook or Juulsen to hit their ceilings. and his retirement early, will help mtl via cap recapture penalty. Nylander might be better then Drouin as we speak, but he is overpaid, and Drouin still has more potential. He's a high pick as well. I would give the edge to Nylander though, but as we speak, Nylander was horrible, just horrible last season. Suzuki has the potential to be a first line winger, who will be on KK's wing for the next decade at least. This trade doesn't benefit mtl at all.</div></div>

I don't think Drouin has more potential than Nylander at this point (he's older and hasn't peaked as high as Nylander yet).

<strong>And I feel very strongly about this next part lol:</strong> Nylander was not horrible last year. He had a horrible start but then then played fine / pretty good.

- 3 points in his first 20 games (0.15 PPG) and looked super out of shape.
- 24 points in his last 34 games (0.71 PPG) a 58 point pace (per 82 games).
- 5.4% shooting % for the season (his previous career average was 11.1%).
- He was getting quality scoring chances (but missed like 18 of 20 breakaways).
- A shooting % near his career average would've put him on a 60 point pace (still his fault though)
- He spent the majority of the season without Matthews on his line (for the first time).
- He played close to 25 games at 3rd line center (and showed a solid 200 foot game).

<strong>His whole season was just a worst case scenario:</strong>

- The media was against him before he played his first game (due to the holdout).
- He was clearly a step behind at the start, which became the Leafs dominant story-line.
- Then the story and all of his interviews turned into " your getting chances - why can't he score?"
- So his stick turned into a tree trunk for the rest of the season.
- He made 1 bad mistake in the playoff's, which was all over the media.

In my opinion ... in the 2nd half he looked like a guy ready for 70-80 points on Matthews wing (but he played 15 minutes a night with Brown / Marleau instead ).
Forum: Armchair-GMTue at 12:57 am
Forum: Armchair-GMTue at 12:06 am
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>tkecanuck341</b></div><div>You can't compare the contracts of a 30 year old player (signed when he was 29) to a player that turns 35 in a couple weeks. A 8-year contract for Couture ends when he's 38. A 4-year contract for Pavelski ends when he's 38. Couture's contract is front-loaded, and he gets $8M, 7M, 7M, 6M over the last 4 years of his contract, averaging $7M per season. I think that's exactly what Pavelski would get over his 4-year contract.

Skinner had 63 points, but he also had 40 goals. He has had 7x 20 goal seasons and 4x 30 goal seasons in his career. Nyquist isn't even close to a comparable to Skinner as he has never cracked 30 goals and has only made 20 goals 3 times. Not to mention that everyone is lambasting Skinner's deal as a terrible signing that will come back to bite them in the later years, despite his consistent production so far over his entire career.

Same goes with Eberle. He has a career high 76 points and multiple 60+ point seasons. Donskoi has never cracked 40 points. They are not comparable players.

I listed Draisaitl's point totals to show the caliber player that he is. Draisaitl had a 77p season and a 51p season under his belt when he signed his contract. Meier has had one quality season in the league so far, topping out at 66 points. Meier is a quality player. Draisaitl is a superstar. They are not comparable players.

Your fallacy is that you think the only factor that determines a player's contract value is the point totals from their most recent season, and that the AAVs don't take into account a player's age and production consistency over the past several years.</div></div>

But will Couture be better than he is now at 34 ???

Probably not ... but Pavelski is better than Couture right now ... at 34.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon at 11:28 pm
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>tkecanuck341</b></div><div>Pavelski is 34. No one is going to give him a 6-year deal, in or out of San Jose. My guess is teams offer him 3, and he'll go with the highest offer or the team that's willing to throw in the 4th year. Additionally, he's not going to get $9M at age 34. His production will be on the decline. I can see a bidding war bringing it up to $7M over 4 years or $7½M over 3 years.

Nyquist has cracked 50pts only twice in his career. That's not worth $7½M. His next contract will likely be in the $5-6M range, and it won't necessarily be with San Jose.

Thornton has made it clear that he's playing in San Jose or not at all. He only made $5M last season, down from $8M the season prior. I can see them offering a $3M contract to Thornton, with part of that amount being bonuses for games played. If he doesn't want to take that, he will retire.

$4½M for Donskoi is too much. That's the same that Toffoli got, and Toffoli had a 30g/58p season in there as well as a Stanley Cup. Donskoi has topped out at 14g/37p. I can see him getting $3-3½M.

Labanc will probably sign a bridge deal in the 2-year, $4M range. He's an RFA and not arbitration eligible, so he doesn't have much negotiating power. He will get a bigger payday after he has a chance to crack 20 goals and gains arbitration rights.

I think they'll probably try and lock down Meier long term, but there's no chance he gets Draisaitl money. $6½-7M maybe. Draisaitl just put up 50 goals and 100 points on one of the worst teams in the league. Meier is good, but he's no Draisaitl.</div></div>

<strong>Pavelski </strong>
Couture is 30 and they gave him $8,000,000 x 8 (which starts next season).
Doesn't that put SJS in the same predicament? (He's signed until he's 38/39).
Pavelski was at least as good as Couture this year too (probably better).
What will Couture be like at 34 with 4 years left ? (probably worse than Pavelski is today).
So Couture's contract is at least as risky, unless you think Pavelski drops of a cliff next year.

<strong>Nyquist </strong>
Nyquist had 60 points this year (his above contract is basically identical to E.Kanes after cap-growth).
E.Kane had 54 points last year (a career high) and signed for $7,000,000 x 7 years.
Skinner had 63 points this year (a career high) and signed for 9,000,000 x 8 years.
Eberle had 37 points this year and signed for $5,500,000 x 5 (the middle of your Nyquist projection).
Why is a 60 point 27 year old getting the same as a 37 point 29 year old (and not his comparable's)?

<strong>Thornton</strong>
Your guess is as valuable as mine (not valuable).
I gave him his UFA market value (on a 1-Year contract) and posed the question: "Who would be willing to take a discount?"
He played a full season this year and got 50+ points so I doubt SJS tries to force a $3,000,000 offer.

<strong>Donskoi </strong>
I will note Eberle's contract again ($5,500,000 x 5 years).
He had the EXACT same amount of points (37) as Donskoi this year and he's 2 years older.
If Donskoi wants a million LESS than Eberle per year with 2 years less term, he'll get it.
Also, Toffoli signed in 2017 after a 34 point season ($4,600,000 in 2017 = $5,100,000 in 2019)
Again, my example has Donskoi is signing for less than his direct comparable's (in 2019 dollars).

<strong>Meier</strong>
Why compare Draisaitl's production AFTER he signed to Meier's prduction BEFORE he's signed?
If Draisaitl was signing THIS year (he's going into the 3rd year of his deal) he'd get $11,000,000+ for his 100 point season.
If you compare Draisaitl's PRE-SIGNING season to Meier's current season, you'll notice that they're VERY similar.
And if you add 2 years of cap-growth (11%) you'll notice that Draisaitl's contract in today dollars = $9,500,000 x 8 years.
So Meier's is actually getting paid 11% less for similar production to Draisaitl (in my example).

<strong>All of your arguments seem to contain the same 3 logical fallacies: </strong>

1. You're not accounting for inflation (a $9,000,000 cap-hit today is equivalent to an $8,000,000 cap hit 2 years ago).
2. You think the RFA / UFA markets haven't changed in 2 years (good players are currently getting a much higher Cap % for whatever reason).
3. You think a comparable's post-signing improvements have implications (post signing stats have ZERO meaning as teams either get lucky or don't).

<strong>Here's a 2019 signing list:</strong>

$11,500,000 = Erik Karlsson (45 points / 0.85 PPG)
$ 9,000,000 = Jeff Skinner (63 points / 0.76 PPG)
$ 5,850,000 = Nick Schmaltz (25 points / 0.62 PPG)
$ 5,800,000 = Esa Lindell (32 points / 0.39 PPG)
$ 5,500,000 = Jordan Eberle (37 points / 0.47 PPG)
$ 5,250,000 = Jacob Silfverberg (43 points / 0.58 PPG)

<strong>Do these all seem unreasonably high? They are. Welcome to 2019.</strong>
Forum: Armchair-GMMon at 10:33 pm
Forum: Armchair-GMMon at 8:19 pm