Laudan

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Maple Leafs de Toronto
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Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 5 heures
Forum: Armchair-GMil y a 6 heures
My evaluation of Dubas work till now

Tavares - signing ............................................................................................... ( A ) i think that was a sure shot on JT side right after he hits UFA but still let him have merits
Nylander - signing............................................................................................ ( B+ ) explained below
TDL 2019 - trades..............................................................................................( D+ ) if not Muzzin B+ trade it would be F
Muzzin - trade .................................................................................................. ( B+ ) we could hunt someone younger with longer term like Manson or Pesce for additional 2x 2nd
Matthews - signing ...........................................................................................( C- ) avalanche of overpayment dragged by this one
DEPTH - signings...............................................................................................( A ) great job with one way minimum wage contracts on Sparks, Rosen, Borgman, Moore

The above were written at TDL 2019

DRAFT 2019 -................................................................................................ ( B+ ) only focusing on Marleau maneuver
FA 2019 -........................................................................................................ ( B ) getting rid of second bad contract and bringing in RHD Gardiner
DEPTH FA - signings....................................................................................... ( A- ) some veteran RHD for 700k could be fished also )
Kapanen - signing........................................................................................... ( A- )
Johnsson - signing........................................................................................... ( A- )
Kerfoot - signing............................................................................................... ( A- )
Marner – signing ...............................................................................................( C- ) as predicted in Matthews remark



<strong>NYLANDER</strong> (minor fail )

i was giving him 7 x 6,8M in my simulations in Summer 2018 cause 61 + 61 and inflation with cap raise ( otherwise point-contibution would make him 6,5M max)

i still believe Nylander was a pre-made setup, which allowed TML to give him money he wanted but with higher pay-check this year cause it was affordable. By holdout he was losing 20k per day, which in two months resulted in 1,2M deficit on his account. Distract that from 10,27M and you get 2M surplus to spread over 6 years on top of 6,9M contract which makes him 6 x 7,2M, so 600k above what he should get based on his previous two seasons production .In my books not such a tragedy in overpayment. Proly that cost TML the resigning of P.Lindholm at 1,5M next year.

Before signing comparable to :
Kutcherov ( 3 x 4,7M on top of 66 + 65)
Gaudreau ( 6 x 6,7M on top of 64 + 78 )
Monahan ( 7 x 6,4M on top of 34 + 63 + 62 )


<strong>MATTHEWS</strong> ( major fail )

in my books from Summer 2018 he was 8 x 11M cause 69 + 63 + "75" and riding on hype ( otherwise points-contribution would make him 8x8M max )

Lets say for the sake of argument Matthews is as good as McDavid ( he isnt, but still )

McDavid signed 8 x 12,5M in 2017, which would be 13,7M in 2018 with Cap raise ( 5% ) and rounded to 10% cause of "inflation".

8 x 13,7M
7 x 12,5M
6 x 11,3M
5 x 10,1M

The above should be logical descending contracts for Matthews ofc after he would score 100 points in his second season and rolling another 100 this season. You can figure the overpayment in $$ / years of contract by yourself. Maybe not even a tragedy if it wouldnt make precedens for all the other contracts to be signed.

Two other names come to mind ....Draisaitl and Eichel, both marked as centers, both signed 2017-2018, both considered overpayment... so ideal comparables to Matthews

Draisaitl.............51 + 77...............8 x 8,5M ( 128 points in first two seasons )....again if he would sign in 2018 with same stats, it would be 8 x 9,4M..........so 5 x 6,5M ( on spot )
Eichel.................56 + 57...............8 x 10M ( 113 points in first two seasons )....again if he would sign in 2018 with same stats, it would be 8 x 11M..........so 5 x 8M ( overpayment )
Matthews..........63 + 69...............5 x 11,6M ( 132 points in first two seasons )

2M overpayment on this if he would be McDavid's level and what i can read from this contract is he is the greedy one ( not Nylander ) and wants to hit UFA asap and move to whoever gives him more.....so another minus from me on his account from TML fan perspective

Ppl here waveing around with : Matthews just gave TML a discount with his 5 x 11,634M ( on top of 63 + 69 seasons ) cause he asked for 8 x 13M ( again on top of 63 + 69 seasons ) and thats his mercifull bowdown to help TML with cap troubles in 2019/2020.
8 x 13,7M is McDavids money if he signed in summer 2018 instead 2017 and if we calculate in the Cap raise and "inflation". And hes not McDavid.

Matthews logic of helping TML : 8 x 13M
........................................................7 x 12,6M
........................................................6 x 12,1M
........................................................5 x 11,634M

Each year of Matthews from 6 to 8 as UFA years is worth 455k.......i mean

Or reversed ( assuming one UFA year averages 800k )
........................................................5 x 11,634M
........................................................6 x 12,434M
........................................................7 x 13,234M
........................................................8 x 14,034M

After those 5x 11,634M Chiarelli looks like genius with McDavid and Draisaitl 8y contracts......

TDL 2019

<strong>MUZZIN</strong>

Great addition with no doubt, but with two 2nd rounds ( 2019, 2020 ) i believe TML could land Manson or even Pesce, which would be younger, defensive RHD and with longer term

<strong>GARDINER</strong>

you dont let ppl like JvR and Gardiner walk ( even Bozak ), even if being what ppl like to call buyer or not

ANA – Montour ( just cause he was traded this TDL )
ANA -- Manson
CAR -- Pesce
VAN -- Stecher ( mostly as team with D in »rebuild« with Gardiner as center point )
MIN – Spurgeon ( JvR at 2018 TDL )
NSH – Ellis ( JvR at 2018 TDL )

»Moneyballing«: Building better defence for the price of overstacked offence soon enough, even if on the way to playoffs wouldnt hurt at all, so JvR should be sacrificed for one of those guys at TDL 2018 ( i dare to claim better D last year would compensate for the points JvR brought to the game ), Gardiner at TDL 2019, that would bring two top RHDs which would proly bring TML further then first round playoffs, cause i assume it will be the fate this year also...

Fact is that in last few years TML succesfully drafted the Offence, added big piece of Elite with Tavares...so some offensive power should be thrown away for the sake to build proper D, escpeciall now when late round drafted kids are rolling like being first rounders.

<strong>DEPTH</strong>

Nothing to add here, school examples of minimum one way contracts, started with Johnsson, Ennis and continuing with Moore, Rosen, Borgman, Sparks

<strong>DRAFT 2019</strong>

I was saying we will need to suck it till Marleau on the payroll, cause he was hindering TML for getting D rebuilt with knowing Gardiner and Hainsey are out and their money will go to Marner. Then he was dumped together with 1st. Could be better, was hoping for 2nd max

<strong>FA 2019</strong>

Then Zaitsev was swapped for Ceci, which is slight stepdown from my point of view, Brown got out for 3rd ( which many of you were saying here, i was humble again with 4th ) so its actually 1 for 1 with giving both players new start. Could be better ? I dont know, its patching and not upgrading ( or maybe just getting another asset to swap at TDL )

And finally Kadri ( that i was trading from last summer and was flaked as hell from all sides cause he will stay Leaf for lifetime ), where the trade looks like win on paper, Kadri for Kerfoot which is again slightly stepdown at first sight but kid is younger and can come like 1M cheaper ( also read kid is two-way efficient as Kadri was ) and 3y of Kadri + Rosen + 3rd for Barries rental also seems, well, with Kadri-has-to-go in my books its not that hard to swallow. Barrie again isnt upgrading but patching cause we just got another Gardiner with him, this time RHDed. Also he will command 8M at least next year, which i think isnt doable

So all in all, Zaitsev = Ceci ( slight loss but 1y vs 5y contract ), Kadri = Kerfoot ( slight loss short term tho kid can pan out better in few years ) and Barrie = Gardiner is just putting TML where they were in 2018/2019. Contenders but again without shutdown Ds in top Pairs ( which i think is a must, as i already said, i may be biased after 25 years between pipes, but i really never liked to be sitting duck and i think Andersen neither )

<strong>DEPTH 2</strong> ( at FA )

4#C in Spezza for 700k, 27 Points Agostino for 700k, not sure about 4#C Shore ( pun intended ) but still ...nothing to add here......


<strong>KAPANEN</strong>

My take would be 2 x 2,7M cause 9 + "50" doesnt earn you nothing over 3M, but with recent trend Dubarelli is setting, maybe 1 x 2,9M for him, just to show we can overpay them all

League Comparables :
Bjorkstrand...8 + 13 + 40 got him 3 x 2,5M
Danault.........10 + 44 + 25 got him 3 x 3M ( arbitration )

<strong>JOHNSSON</strong>

Same as for Kapanen, tho hes one season of stats short, but lets say he gets the same

Comparables :
Arvidsson ( 7 x 4,250M on top of 16 + 61 , tho i think kid screwed himself a bit with term to long )
Danault 3 x 3M ( arbitration )

<strong>KERFOOT </strong>

When acquired i gave the kid 4 x 4M ( and 2 x 3,5M ) but they managed to sign him 4 x 3,5M....im going to sit in the corner

<strong>MARNER</strong> ( major fail )

Back in Summer 2018 mostly went with 7 x 8M cause 61 + 69 + "90" and taking "hometown discount" ( otherwise points-contribution would make him 8x8,5M max )

Comparables :
Kutcherov ( 3 x 4,7M on top of 66 + 65)
Panarin ( 2 x 6M on top of 77 + 74 )

Aaaaand he did it again........


<strong>KYLE DUBAS</strong>
<strong>GRADE YEAR : JUNIOR</strong>
<strong>FINAL GRADE : B</strong>
<strong>MENTOR : CHIARELLI</strong>
Forum: Armchair-GMMon at 1:19 am
Sujet: Calm Down
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jamiepo</b></div><div>I’m kinda hoping we re sign neither muzzin or Barrie and find Rielly a real partner, even if it is short term. A guy like hamonic would be perfect.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>I don't know why fans think they have any hold any UFA. Teams shouldn't get involved in any bidding war for UFAs. Muzzin isn't needed that badly, and I'm sure Barrie with his offensive flair will price himself out of LealLand . There has be better value out there, even if means trading a forward for cap space</div></div>

I believe / hope they will re-sign Muzzin, he costed 1st and 2 x 2nds and is curently the only approximation of defensive D, Barrie is the one who isnt needed ( especially not at price of 5M+), TML have forwards to play the Offensive game. Thing is the big names that could supposedly hit FA will proly all be re-signed ( Spurgeon check ), so TML will need to operate with what they already have in the flock.

From some other thread ( where ChiHawk wanted to be smart how we need to sell Nylander again ):

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Laudan</b></div><div>To avoid the No.500 sim today where Marner is signed, i will just write it here, youll figure it

Thing is first cut will be made this year already. With Matthews and Marner overpaid by 2M each ( or 2y in term), sadly Hyman is on the way out, cause 2019/2020 already isnt doable without that

And now the sim 2020/2021, will write $$ youll figure it out i guess :

775,000 - 11,000,000 - 10,893,000...................................22,668,000
775,000 - 11,634,000 - 6,962,000.....................................19.371,000
3,400.000 - 3,500,000 - 3,300,000....................................10,200,000
775,000 - 775,000 - 775,000..............................................2,325,000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------54,564,000

5,000,000 - 5,000,000..........................................................10,000,000
5,000,000 - 3,000,000.............................................................8,000,000
894,000 - 863,000................................................................... 1,757,000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------19,757,000

5,000,000
800,000
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------5,800,000

scratches for 22 roster

700,000
700,000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1,400,000

TOTAL : 81,521,000

O is set longterm ( kinda ), proly D needs explanation, 1st Pair Rielly - UFA ( hopefully Hamonic or something ), 2nd Pair Muzzin ( 4 x 5M ) and Dermott ( 3 x 3M )

I believe its enlightfull enough, 2M in the pot still, which even makes Spurgeon or Pietrangelo at 7M fishable if any of those will hit Free Agency.....

Is it Stanley Cup team ? I doubt with above mentioned 4M missing to land another #1-2 Dman

I guess you will come with Andersen for 2021/2022 and Rielly 2022/2023 next........</div></div>
Forum: Armchair-GMSun at 2:39 am
Sujet: Who goes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jangle29</b></div><div>I see Hyman from so many people is mind blowing. He is a key piece. Way higher depth than Johnsson, Kapanen, or likely Kerfoot. It would be very hard to see a roster with literally zero winger who can get to puck out of the corner win in the playoffs</div></div>

It makes me sad too, but if you dig deeper, youll notice its the most obvious choice. Johnsson, Kerfoot and Kapanen were just signed. Kerfoot and Kapanen are reportedlly killing in camp with speed ( and thats not against Hainsey ), which is rare skill. On the other side, Hyman is 28, had ACL ( i had one, not an easy comeback with those ), hes entering last years contract after this shortened Season, and grit is easier to find then speed. With another 40 Poinst Season TML wont be able to give him 4x 4M ( guess why ) and with that in mind he was ment to hit the road anyway, it will just happen two years earlier. Im the guy with much of the Hymans mentality also, you go there and battle it till death, so i would really like to see him stay, but the truth is different. Dubarelli just kicked him and Brown out while caveing.

But then again, you have plethora of youngsters that can do his job like Moore, Engvall, Marchment, Korshkov, Mikheyev ( hopefully for 2 x 775k ) even Wilson, while for the speed the only name that comes up is Bracco ( and im still dreaming about Duszak and Hollowell to be transfered to the wing with size as their handicap for D )
Forum: Armchair-GMSun at 2:23 am
Sujet: Who goes
Forum: Armchair-GMSat at 10:17 am
Sujet: Who goes
Forum: Armchair-GMSat at 9:30 am
Sujet: Who goes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>blowing_the_zone</b></div><div>Eh? I'm not referring to the contract amount. I'm referring to his tactics..

*leaking like sieve and making the negotiation process public through their puppet Dreger even after publicly being asked to stop by Shanny
*actively pursuing an OS while he had and EXISTING overpay offer from the leafs of 11M @ 7/8 yrs that would have made him one of the highest players in the game
* manipulating the narrative and painting Mitch as being disrespected and victimized by the leafs, all while he had that massive overpay offer onbthe table
.. smh
*never ending rumours of Paul and his burner accounts.

Take Mitch and the leafs out of it for a second, and ask yourself if you'd be comfortable forming a long term relationship with someone who acts like that without some kind of assurance that they learned from the experience and also wouldn't want to repeat it. And if they decided to maintain that behaviour, well, they would be forewarned that it wouldn't be tolerated...

There was lots of chatter throughout these negotiations about who had what leverage. Now that the contract is done, Mitch has absolutely zero leverage that would justify his antics . I can certainly see how the leafs will make this abundantly clear to lil Richy Mitch.</div></div>

It worked for them honey, wasnt it

Again, i still think you ppl are looking into wrong direction, Mitch proly didnt do sh.t thru whole negotiations process, why would he, he hired agent for that. And about forming relations with "ppl like that", the damage was done back in January 2019, best goals 5v5 my a.s, in no way the AAV / Term should be doubled in comparison with all the other League contracts....if that one would be handled properly, today we wouldnt be talking about Mitch greed and kid would be signed 7 x 9,5M ( one year less then Kutcherov cause of "you-know-taxes" ). Ferris just followed the trend and played it out as he knew the caving is on the way again.....
Forum: Armchair-GMSat at 8:59 am
Sujet: Who goes
Forum: Armchair-GMSat at 8:58 am
Sujet: Who goes
Forum: Armchair-GMSat at 3:52 am
Sujet: Now what
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ChiHawk</b></div><div>Post your AGM for 20/21....I'm genuinely interested to see how best to manage this cap hell situation.</div></div>

To avoid the No.500 sim today where Marner is signed, i will just write it here, youll figure it

Thing is first cut will be made this year already. With Matthews and Marner overpaid by 2M each ( or 2y in term), sadly Hyman is on the way out, cause 2019/2020 already isnt doable without that

And now the sim 2020/2021, will write $$ youll figure it out i guess :

775,000 - 11,000,000 - 10,893,000...................................22,668,000
775,000 - 11,634,000 - 6,962,000.....................................19.371,000
3,400.000 - 3,500,000 - 3,300,000....................................10,200,000
775,000 - 775,000 - 775,000..............................................2,325,000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------54,564,000

5,000,000 - 5,000,000..........................................................10,000,000
5,000,000 - 3,000,000.............................................................8,000,000
894,000 - 863,000................................................................... 1,757,000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------19,757,000

5,000,000
800,000
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------5,800,000

scratches for 22 roster

700,000
700,000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1,400,000

TOTAL : 81,521,000

O is set longterm ( kinda ), proly D needs explanation, 1st Pair Rielly - UFA ( hopefully Hamonic or something ), 2nd Pair Muzzin ( 4 x 5M ) and Dermott ( 3 x 3M )

I believe its enlightfull enough, 2M in the pot still, which even makes Spurgeon or Pietrangelo at 7M fishable if any of those will hit Free Agency.....

Is it Stanley Cup team ? I doubt with above mentioned 4M missing to land another #1-2 Dman

I guess you will come with Andersen for 2021/2022 and Rielly 2022/2023 next........
Forum: Armchair-GMFri at 11:55 pm
Sujet: Who goes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>If he was part of the cap, I'd immediately say Babcock. Heck I'll say his name anyway as a Leaf that should be gone.

Johnsson is my first choice. Kapanen second. Need a 3m player gone to be replaced by a 900,000 to make the cap work.</div></div>

i just made a sim with Hyman included, 22 men roster and being-300k, so no need to dump them youngsters at 3M for now.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jamiepo</b></div><div>To lose Hyman and brown in one season is crushing but I have to agree with you. Even from a cap stand point. From the looks of things he will start on IR not LTIR. Leafs can not afford 2.35m I’m dead cap space.</div></div>

Well, my dark predictions came thru. I dont believe if you remember but last summer we went into a clinch where you called me out how i dont know what buyers mean and i was still putting them in brackets, claiming if overpayments will take place, depth will be lost.

It was bad enough for me that 2M + 2M will result in not being able to pump the D ( im painting this out with a simple instead of Pietrangelo at 7M the top Pair D will have to be Dermott at 3M ) but with losing both Brown and Hyman on that behalf, it feels even worse, true.

Said that before, box of Oreos on left wing of Tavares and Matthews will end the season with 25+ Points, but still....Brown was 28 Point working kid playing in 4th line....thats not something to ignore in my books.....and same goes fro Hyman grinding himself till last breath....