9 jun 2019
Islanders de New York
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<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>newballcoach</b></div><div>The Leafs did use LTIR when he was there, however, it's not a safe haven or get out of jail free card for bad contracts. They used it for Robidas, Lupul and now Horton/Clarkson. There are physicals each player needs to take and they need to fail them. They can appeal the decision if they want to play, they don't just have to sit out and take it. None of the guys I mentioned with the Leafs could physically play anymore, since Ladd is currently playing in the AHL, it seems very unlikely he will be a candidate for LTIR anytime soon.</div></div>
Context matters. Like I said, Ladd has never been able to stay heathy in his time with the islanders. He has chronic back problem, and has had 3 lower body surgeries in the last year and a half (ACL, MCL).
Robidas “failed” his physical. Lou has a way to make players disappear , ive seen many leafs fans talk about that. Ladd owns a beautiful home on Long Island and has 3 kids, it’s not worth it to risk your well being riding the buses in the AHL. There is a very small chance he makes it through the end of the season heathy and then you will see him on LTIR. These aren’t minor injuries were talking about
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood</b></div><div>Here is the thing though, the Islanders are counting on 2 things to remain competitive. You are counting on your young players all taking small short term deals or hope they give you discounts. And you are hoping none of these 30+ year olds decline at all.
What happens if Barzal wants a long term deal? Whats that going to look like? He's your best offensive player and looks like he's going to be one of the better top line centres in the league. That isn't going to cheap. Sure you can hope for one of those new bridge deals but the are entirely full of risk and will result in even more cap dollars spent in 2-3 years after that. What is the plan with the goaltending? Varlamov has never been as good as he is right now and is also 31, what if he starts trailing off? Comparing yourself to St Louis who was a top team in the West for years before finally getting over the top last year is a awfully bold comparison. Same with Boston, who have the most flexible payroll in the league. In Boston's case, they got lucky getting Marchand and Pastrnak under contract before they broke out. Both of those guys should be making over 10.
So like I said, you need a tonne of things to go right for there to be zero problems ahead. But the chances are, guys like Lee, Bailey, Nelson, Eberle, and Varlamov will start taking steps backwards because it almost always happens. Look at guys like James Neal, he was a lock for 25+ goals and 50 points and now he's a shell of his former self. Andrew Laad was the same, as was Backes. And you have 4 guys like that at the top of your payroll right now. If just 1 of them falls off a cliff in the next couple of years, that is a major problem for you. What happens if all 4 decline rapidly. Its far more likely to see that for all of them to stave off any sort of decline.</div></div>
The islanders have three RFA this summer. Barzal (likely 10x6 or 10.5 x7) and two of their top 4 Dmen: Devon Toews (4.5-5 AAV x 6-7 years) and pulock (6.5 AAV x 5). I've made numerous ACGM on this, even with barzal getting 11 mill AAV at worst and they'll still be fine. Nick Leddy is getting traded (5.5 mill) and Matt Martin (2.5) + greiss (3.3) come off the books as well. Leo Komarov will likely be bough out. Ladd has never went more than a few months without suffering a serious injury in his 3 years with the islanders and they have buried him in the AHL (with no plans of bringing him up, likely waiting for him to get injured again so he can go on LTIR) so that will be another 5.5 mill that won't affect the cap .
Oliver Wahlstrom played 9 games this season and the islanders took the same approach with him like the leafs did with Sandin. He is NHL ready (led the islanders in xGF%) but they want his ELC to slide and he will be on barzals wing next season. I don't know how you're commenting about the islanders and their contracts and don't know what's going on with the goaltending. The islanders drafted Ilya Sorokin, arguably the best goaltending prospect in the NHL. He plays for CSKA Moscow and did not want to come to the islanders because of our previous GM. Once Lou Lamoriello became Gm, he was open to coming here, so the islanders signed Varlamov (sorokin +varlamov share the same agent) to make it an easier transition for him next season. Many around the league + scouts view him as a franchise goaltender and he has put up ridiculous numbers in the KHL. Before you comment about the ice surface and bigger rink and acclimating to NA, capitals G samsonov and rangers G shestyerkin are both playing for their respective organizations and have done very well so far. Sorokin is expected to be better than both and he has to sign a 1 yr ELC @ 925k (he's 25). After his ELC is up, varlamov will have 2 years left @ 5 mill per. If he keeps up this level of play or close to it, he will have trade value.
Nelson just turned 28 years old last month and is signed till his age 33 season. You act like he's signed till he's 37. When the islanders signed him to 6x6 this summer after posting 56 pts last season, leafs twitter was trolling isles fans and comparing nylander to him. Currently Nelson is on pace for 65 pts, has the best defensive impact on the team which is impressive considering he is tasked with shutting down opposing teams top lines, and he leads ALL centers in all-situation high-danger attempts. He also plays a similar game to Tavares (Tavares is much better offensively, nelson is better defensively) and I've seen you post multiple times on here how Tavares game will age well, so not sure why you're dying on this hill that nelson will decline.
Eberle signed for 5.5 x 5 this past summer and is signed to his age 33 season. @ineffectivemath (Micah) on twitter called it a bargain deal and that Eberle is an extremely powerful driver of offense. Will Eberle decline? Maybe. Will he turn out to be like Andrew Ladd? Highly unlikely. Eberle plays a similar game to hornqvist + tj oshie and they both produced in their age 32 seasons, but Eberle is going to take a step backwards "because it almost always happens". The players I just mentioned are also locked up into their late 30's. Also, are the islanders not able to move players? Lou has done it in the past and dubas just traded a defenseman with 5 years left @4.5 mill and gave up a 1st to move marleau contract. If I had to guess, the emergence of wahlstrom will result in the islanders leaving Eberle exposed in the expansion draft and Seattle will take Eberle with 3 years left @ 5.5 AAV. Either way, this is not a contract that will cripple the islanders, even if his play declines. The islanders signed him because he can help them win a cup in the next 2 years, but he likely will not be here for the remainder of his contract
By the way, James Neal is 32 and is on pace for 34 goals this season. I wouldn't want that contract because it takes him to his age 35 season, but to say that he's a shell of his former self is wrong. He was not used properly in Calgary.
Bailey is on pace for 60 points this season as a 30 year old. He's in a rare category of players that started to produce at a high level starting in their late 20's. Is it possible that he declines? sure. Will it be hurt the islanders if he does? No. I expect Bailey to be on the 3rd line putting up 35-45 pts in 2 years. Better players will be in the top 6 and by then, and 5 mill AAV won't be that much with the cap going up.
Lee scores 90% of his goals 2 ft in front of the net, either by deflecting pucks or cleaning up rebounds. No one can move him and his hand eye coordination is elite, which is why he's one of the best net front presence in the league. I don't like his contract and it will be a problem down the line, but not anytime soon. He's signed till he's 36 but his contract is buyout friendly with no signing bonuses, so they can always buy him out . He significantly increases the islanders chances of winning a Stanley cup right now and he's a great captain, they would not be where they are in the standings without him.
I don't think you understand the direction of the islanders or what they see their lineup being in the next few years. The islanders can afford to have one of lee, Bailey , or Eberle to take a step backwards in the next couple of years. It won't have a big affect on the team. The islanders went on a 15-0-2 streak this season and Eberle was injured for 10 of those games. Varlamov is a stop gap for sorokin. The only player the islanders can't afford to take a step back is Brock Nelson. Like I said, he just turned 28 last month and he's playing like a 1C (albeit a low end one) so to think he's just going to fall off a cliff is unrealistic and wishful thinking.
The islanders top 9 next season will likely be : lee(30) - barzal(23) - wahlstrom(20),
beauvillier (23)- nelson(29)- eberle (30),
dal Colle (24) - koivula (22) - bailey (31).
2021-22 season. beauvillier (24) - barzal (24) - wahlstrom (21)
lee (31). - Nelson (30) - holmstrom (20)
bellows (23) - koivula (23) - bailey (32)