Brian2016

Membre depuis
3 déc 2017
Équipe préférée
Devils du New Jersey
Deuxième équipe préférée
Penguins de Pittsburgh
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Forum: NHL Signingsil y a 10 heures
Forum: NHLil y a 10 heures
Forum: NHLSat at 2:29 am
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>Some fans criticized the Tavares UFA signing because it put the Leafs "over the cap". Let's say the Leafs are over the cap because of 2.5m because of Tavares. Remember Leafs signed Tavares for no assets exchanged So to be cap compliant and to make a better team. So the Leafs could trade 3.2m Kapanen an 3.4m Johnson...that gets rid of 6.6m minus 2.5, over the cap...Leafs have 4.1m in cap space. 1m to replace on eof the two traded and 3.1 for another player. The Leafs "traded". Kapanen and Johnson for a 1m player, a 3.1m player and Tavares. Leafs will take that.
The Leaf might feel they have 1m player with the Marlies and the 3.1m player is a dman. I'm agreeing with you the Leafs will have to make a trade. But if you have good assets on fair contracts then a deal can be done.
I mentioned Johnsson and Kapanen because they are very tradable due to their contracts and play. If Nylander plays well, his 7m front loaded contract could be traded for a really good Dman.</div></div>

"Good assets on fair contracts." That's exactly how Tampa has been able to keep all of their superstars including Vas, Kucherov, Stamkos, Hedman, and eventually Point. They were able to trade Miller and actually get a good return on him. One difference is that Tampa's stars took team friendly deals, probably due at least in part b/c of the state tax exemption. TOR doesn't have that luxury, but they do have a plethora of young talent from which to wheel and deal. Kap and Johnsson in particular, as you said, are very attractive trade chips. If Nylander bounces back early on this season I'll include him in that category.
All that being said, the Leafs, as presently constituted, probably can't endure the physicality of a deep playoff run. I think the prospect of beating both TBL and BOS or FLA in the first two rounds is gonna prove exceptionally tough. But, I've been wrong before. I never thought WASH would get past PIT 2 years ago.
Forum: NHLFri at 11:52 pm
Forum: NHLFri at 11:44 pm
Forum: NHL SigningsFri at 1:17 pm
Forum: NHL SigningsFri at 1:33 am
Forum: NHL SigningsThu at 10:52 pm
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>rebecca</b></div><div>Technically speaking, when comparing these contracts, Morrissey is actually 3y older (as this contract doesn’t kick in until 2020/21). For $500,000 *more* the Flyers are getting 2 *fewer* years although you could argue that the last 2 years of Morrissey’s contract could be the least valuable as he could start declining by then (age 31/32).

I’d agree in general with your assessment - that the Morrissey contract is safer but has less potential maximum upside. That said I think the likelihood of there being a net positive from the contract is much greater with Morrissey. He’s already worth that much - arguably more - so that makes its value more solid.

Provorov is unequivocally not worth that much now and thus has to continue to improve to even have the contract break even. That said, he has a high pedigree and is still considered on track to be a decent - but no longer elite - top pairing defender. His ceiling is still a titch above Morrissey’s but Morrissey is much closer to his ceiling than Provorov (thus more likely to reach it). If Provorov meets these lofty expectations then it’s a win. *If*.

If I had to put numbers on it, would look something like this:

Provorov contract massive bargain - 12%
Morrissey contract massive bargain - 4%

Provorov contract significant bargain - 22%
Morrissey contract significant bargain - 52%

Provorov contract fair value - 28%
Morrissey contract fair value - 32%

Provorov contract significant anchor - 28%
Morrissey contract significant anchor - 10%

Provorov contract massive anchor - 10%
Morrissey contract massive anchor - 2%

Likelihood of contract being an anchor?
Morrissey 12%
Provorov 38% (&gt; 3x)

I think that’s why Provorov’s contract has about 3x the “No’s” as Morrissey. That said the potential for Provorov’s contract to be a massive bargain is greater (also by 3x). However the likelihood of such a good outcome happening occurs only 8% of the time vs 25% of the time for either contract being a bust. So pick which is more important? The Provorov deal is just too risky for my tastes in a cap world.</div></div>

Nice analysis btw.
Forum: NHL SigningsThu at 10:51 pm
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>rebecca</b></div><div>Technically speaking, when comparing these contracts, Morrissey is actually 3y older (as this contract doesn’t kick in until 2020/21). For $500,000 *more* the Flyers are getting 2 *fewer* years although you could argue that the last 2 years of Morrissey’s contract could be the least valuable as he could start declining by then (age 31/32).

I’d agree in general with your assessment - that the Morrissey contract is safer but has less potential maximum upside. That said I think the likelihood of there being a net positive from the contract is much greater with Morrissey. He’s already worth that much - arguably more - so that makes its value more solid.

Provorov is unequivocally not worth that much now and thus has to continue to improve to even have the contract break even. That said, he has a high pedigree and is still considered on track to be a decent - but no longer elite - top pairing defender. His ceiling is still a titch above Morrissey’s but Morrissey is much closer to his ceiling than Provorov (thus more likely to reach it). If Provorov meets these lofty expectations then it’s a win. *If*.

If I had to put numbers on it, would look something like this:

Provorov contract massive bargain - 12%
Morrissey contract massive bargain - 4%

Provorov contract significant bargain - 22%
Morrissey contract significant bargain - 52%

Provorov contract fair value - 28%
Morrissey contract fair value - 32%

Provorov contract significant anchor - 28%
Morrissey contract significant anchor - 10%

Provorov contract massive anchor - 10%
Morrissey contract massive anchor - 2%

Likelihood of contract being an anchor?
Morrissey 12%
Provorov 38% (&gt; 3x)

I think that’s why Provorov’s contract has about 3x the “No’s” as Morrissey. That said the potential for Provorov’s contract to be a massive bargain is greater (also by 3x). However the likelihood of such a good outcome happening occurs only 8% of the time vs 25% of the time for either contract being a bust. So pick which is more important? The Provorov deal is just too risky for my tastes in a cap world.</div></div>

Also gotta take into account the fact that Morrissey should see substantial exposure to WPG's elite forwards both at 5on5 and on the PP. His offensive numbers should probably be higher than Provorov's assuming Ghostesbehere retains the #1 PP role. Maybe it's just b/c I've seen Provorov a lit more on tv and in person b/c the Flyers play the Devils 4 times a year and PHI gets more national TV exposure, but I just think he's the total package of 2-way skill, physicality, and high hockey IQ. Before his regression last season I thought he was a future Norris contender...He still might be, but who knows.
Forum: NHL SigningsThu at 10:09 pm