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Nashville Predators signed Roman Josi (8 Years / $9,059,000 AAV)

Was this a good signing?
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29 oct à 13 h 45
#26
Oilers Suck
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Quoting: Random2152
You need to keep up with the research bud
war-basic-chart.png?w=615
evo-war-graph.png?w=615


Explain Giordano's development then lmao. Undrafted, recently rounded into top 2 d form in his 30's, wins norris at 36
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29 oct à 13 h 49
#27
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Quoting: hockeyconnor97
I wouldn't say a players peak years end at 26-27....


See above where I posted the data
Quoting: JohnMeston
Some random graphs lmao that means literally nothing bud

Okay so you have no ****ing idea what you are talking about. Good to know.
FYI, these are called age curves. It is extensive research into how age affects a player. You can read all the research and such from here and here.
And BTW, one of the guys who did a lot of the early work is the AGM for the Hurricanes - Eric Tulsky.
https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/03/23/a-new-look-at-aging-curves-for-nhl-skaters-part-1/
https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/04/10/a-new-look-at-aging-curves-for-nhl-skaters-part-2/
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29 oct à 13 h 50
#28
The evil stats guy
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Quoting: JohnMeston
Explain Giordano's development then lmao. Undrafted, recently rounded into top 2 d form in his 30's, wins norris at 36


Do you not know how an average works? He is the exception and is FAR from the rule.
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29 oct à 13 h 51
#29
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8 years?
Ouch

Totally should have given less term for more money.
You doubt that? Go check those long term deals on D after 30.
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29 oct à 13 h 54
#30
Drumman44
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Quoting: Random2152
I mean, you say that...
overall-war-f_d.png?w=615


Is that data point for age #39 defense literally just Chara?
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29 oct à 13 h 56
#31
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Quoting: DrumMan44
Is that data point for 39 literally just Chara?


No. It says there are 4-6 data points in that age range (depending on which side of 39 you are looking at). The raw data is:
https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/03/23/a-new-look-at-aging-curves-for-nhl-skaters-part-1/
https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/04/10/a-new-look-at-aging-curves-for-nhl-skaters-part-2/

The edges will obviously have sample size issues (not a lot of teens and 40 somethings in the NHL)
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29 oct à 14 h 13
#32
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Quoting: mondo
incredible rebuttal here.


Quoting: Trickster
8 years?
Ouch

Totally should have given less term for more money.
You doubt that? Go check those long term deals on D after 30.


Y'all ready for an incredibly hot but informed take? I was being generous in my analysis.





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29 oct à 14 h 31
#33
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Modifié 29 oct à 14 h 36
Quoting: Random2152
A players peak years END at 26-27 y/o.
A player goes into serious decline around 30.
Josi will be 30 when this 8 year 9.059 contract STARTS.
He is a fantastic dman, of that there is no doubt but expecting him to be worth it past the first couple years is ludicrous. This is a bad deal through and through.


That is on AVERAGE in the NHL but hardly a rule especially for highend talent as "average" includes a lot of bottom end talent to get averages.
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29 oct à 14 h 39
#34
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Quoting: ChiHawk
That is on AVERAGE in the NHL but hardly a rule especially for highend talent as "average" includes a lot of bottom end talent to get averages.


I know. I think it is safe to say that Josi will go longer than average, but expecting him to go to 38 is a tall ask. He is ultimately going to slow down in the next few years though and won't be worth the deal anymore. That is not to say he will be bad all of a sudden, just not worth 9 mil/y for the majority of the contract. That makes it a bad contract.
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29 oct à 14 h 56
#35
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Quoting: Random2152
I know. I think it is safe to say that Josi will go longer than average, but expecting him to go to 38 is a tall ask. He is ultimately going to slow down in the next few years though and won't be worth the deal anymore. That is not to say he will be bad all of a sudden, just not worth 9 mil/y for the majority of the contract. That makes it a bad contract.


I don't disagree he will slow down and the end of this deal won't look great, but that's not unusual. Look at EK, Vlasic, Seabrook...safe to say this deal looks good in the first half but wont in the 2nd half however, as the cap grows, $9M will hardly be what it is today in 4 years.
29 oct à 15 h 06
#36
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Quoting: Random2152
A players peak years END at 26-27 y/o.
A player goes into serious decline around 30.
Josi will be 30 when this 8 year 9.059 contract STARTS.
He is a fantastic dman, of that there is no doubt but expecting him to be worth it past the first couple years is ludicrous. This is a bad deal through and through.


Ends at 26/27? Not necessarily...
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29 oct à 15 h 07
#37
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Quoting: ChiHawk
I don't disagree he will slow down and the end of this deal won't look great, but that's not unusual. Look at EK, Vlasic, Seabrook...safe to say this deal looks good in the first half but wont in the 2nd half however, as the cap grows, $9M will hardly be what it is today in 4 years.


I mean...
You're comparing this deal to some of the worst in the league. I think that says everything that needs to be said about it no?

While you are right that the cap will go up in the coming years, that will be a large amount of money that could still have been used to improve the team that they will no longer have. In 5 years time I figure that he will be overpaid by ~1 Kapanen. Kappy isn't some world ending talent or anything, but being able to just add a player of that calibre to the team is huge and can make the difference in making the playoffs or being a contender. It is why cap management is so important.

You also have to remember that we are talking about a player not being worth a contract here. When you overpay old players, they aren't worth it. When you overpay young players, they are still expected to produce as much or often times much more than that overpay. McDavid being the obvious example here but the same holds true for AM, MM, WN, Aho, Pastrnak, DeBrincat etc.

All in all that is a huge opportunity cost just being thrown out the window to keep a star well past their prime.
29 oct à 15 h 08
#38
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Quoting: JohnMeston
Explain Giordano's development then lmao. Undrafted, recently rounded into top 2 d form in his 30's, wins norris at 36


This means close to nothing. Advanced stats are just a fancy way to make people think they are smart. Every player is different and every players body is different. It all varies.
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29 oct à 15 h 09
#39
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Quoting: JohnMeston
A players peak does not end at 27 lmao, a players prime is over at 30 to 31ish, usually average players start declining then, with obvious exceptions (suter, giordano). The aav isnt bad, but i agree the length is a bit much.


Quoting: Random2152
Carlson, Karlsson and Josi all suffer from the same issue. All the deals are bad thanks to the term for the same reasons. Pay a guy until he is 30-32 (either 8 year deal right off or two mid terms or a bridge and a long term deal) and let him go after if he wont take a cut.

Handy rule of thumb is that 30 is the new 33.


Yeah guys like Carlson are the “problem” signing 8 year deal at the age of 28. Carlson didn’t even consider a pay cut signing at 8 million dollars. What a greedy guy. 28 he is well past his peak. My goodness.

Carlson career high at 18-27. 55 points. It’s crazy bc he’s playing out of his prime and scoring at Career high numbers? How is it possible. 68 points at 27. 70 points at 28. He has 21 points in 13 games at 29? (132points pace) my god what a jerk signing a deal when he’s just recently out of his prime. Man you really get it. You should be paid to write about this professionally.

I’ll take Carlson deal all day. He signed a team friendly deal. Being a leafs fan you must be confused on what that looks like. smile
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29 oct à 15 h 13
#40
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Quoting: Capitalfail67
Yeah guys like Carlson are the “problem” signing 8 year deal at the age of 28. Carlson didn’t even consider a pay cut signing at 8 million dollars. What a greedy guy. 28 he is well past his peak. My goodness.

Carlson career high at 18-27. 55 points. It’s crazy bc he’s playing out of his prime and scoring at Career high numbers? How is it possible. 68 points at 27. 70 points at 28. He has 21 points in 13 games at 29? (132points pace) my god what a jerk signing a deal when he’s just recently out of his prime. Man you really get it. You should be paid to write about this professionally.

I’ll take Carlson deal all day. He signed a team friendly deal. Being a leafs fan you must be confused on what that looks like. smile


This shows such a clear lack of any understanding of what was actually said it is just sad.
You demonstrate no understanding on what being out of their prime means
You demonstrate no understanding on what decline means
You demonstrate no understanding of statistical variation (the reason why points don't mean anything in player evaluation)
You demonstrate no understanding of averages...

Did you even graduate high school? This is pretty basic stuff, especially the last part there.
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29 oct à 15 h 20
#41
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Quoting: Random2152
This shows such a clear lack of any understanding of what was actually said it is just sad.
You demonstrate no understanding on what being out of their prime means
You demonstrate no understanding on what decline means
You demonstrate no understanding of statistical variation (the reason why points don't mean anything in player evaluation)
You demonstrate no understanding of averages...

Did you even graduate high school? This is pretty basic stuff, especially the last part there.


Carlson isnt showing decline its actually improving with age? hah man you aren't good at noticing things are you....I should have used a graph for you? pictures help you understand huh?

all your charts show is that your AVERAGE nhl guy will decline.....not the elite talent. like showing me a chart of crosby signing a deal at 28 and saying what a terrible deal hes going to decline bc Brian Boyle declined at that age. its just really really lazy on your part
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29 oct à 15 h 22
#42
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Quoting: JohnMeston
YIkes you are getting grumpy in your old age Grandpa. Who cares, go talk to someone who does. That'll take a long time to find someone who does.


hes mad bc hes comparing elite talent to terrible talent and getting a graph of the average......

he also included Carlson in the conversation of terrible contracts but since he signed that deal hes done nothing but improve his play? that goes against his logic so he needs to make a graph and cry about it and throw insults about going to school
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29 oct à 15 h 22
#43
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Quoting: Capitalfail67
Carlson isnt showing decline its actually improving with age? hah man you aren't good at noticing things are you....I should have used a graph for you? pictures help you understand huh?

all your charts show is that your AVERAGE nhl guy will decline.....not the elite talent. like showing me a chart of crosby signing a deal at 28 and saying what a terrible deal hes going to decline bc Brian Boyle declined at that age. its just really really lazy on your part


"Yeah, those 500 other guys all had that happen to them, but when I do the same thing I will be the exception! I am sure of it. Just ignore all those other stars who fell off a cliff"

The guy you are saying disproves basic age curves is 29 and somehow you're calling me lazy and that I don't notice things.
images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcSVFSByyis6I2L8KGly3awlapV9iS2UFE6s1b91qFTBFooXUj7B
29 oct à 15 h 23
#44
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Quoting: Random2152
"Yeah, those 500 other guys all had that happen to them, but when I do the same thing I will be the exception! I am sure of it. Just ignore all those other stars who fell off a cliff"

The guy you are saying disproves basic age curves is 29 and somehow you're calling me lazy.
images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcSVFSByyis6I2L8KGly3awlapV9iS2UFE6s1b91qFTBFooXUj7B


how old was the Norris winner last year? 36? man he should be a 3rd pairing bender right? yes your are very lazy and try to generalize average to terrible talent and compare is to elite level players


maybe do some research then before throwing my guy Carlsons name into the fire
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29 oct à 15 h 24
#45
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whole lot of mad in this thread.

a lot of the guys getting big salaries probably not going to drop off like the average defensemen would past 30, but their production and value is definitively going to slip in the later years of the contract.

are karlsson, josi and carlson going to be worth 11, 9 and 8 million respectively when they're 34-35?
29 oct à 15 h 24
#46
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Quoting: Capitalfail67
how old was the Norris winner last year?


Once again you show that you fundamentally do not understand averages. The exception does not disprove the rule.
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29 oct à 15 h 28
#47
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Quoting: Random2152
Once again you show that you fundamentally do not understand averages. The exception does not disprove the rule.


you dont understand that theses players aren't average? please think before you criticize. I understand how averages work......its just stupid to use averages in this case....maybe if you were to show the average of all elite level top line players and show the decline it would have been better but you went the lazy route
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29 oct à 15 h 30
#48
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Quoting: Capitalfail67
you dont understand that theses players aren't average? please think before you criticize. I understand how averages work......its just stupid to use averages in this case....maybe if you were to show the average of all elite level top line players and show the decline it would have been better but you went the lazy route


Do you think Carlson will be worth a 8 million cap hit towards the end of the contract?
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29 oct à 15 h 31
#49
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Quoting: Capitalfail67
you dont understand that theses players aren't average? please think before you criticize. I understand how averages work......its just stupid to use averages in this case....maybe if you were to show the average of all elite level top line players and show the decline it would have been better but you went the lazy route


You seem to be ignoring the fact that this also applies to stars and superstars too. This data includes some top end talent, very few played up to their contract to the age where Josi will be half way through his.
Everyone in the NHL is special. They have to be to make it in the first place. When everyone is special, no one is.
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29 oct à 15 h 32
#50
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Quoting: Capitalfail67
you dont understand that theses players aren't average? please think before you criticize. I understand how averages work......its just stupid to use averages in this case....maybe if you were to show the average of all elite level top line players and show the decline it would have been better but you went the lazy route


You also seem hell bent on calling me lazy, so why don't you bring it up with the creators who did years of research to produce these results.
I am sure the AGM of the Hurricanes (Eric Tulsky) will make time for you if you ask politely.
https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/03/23/a-new-look-at-aging-curves-for-nhl-skaters-part-1/
 
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