Forums/Armchair-GM

The Value of Good Scouting and Those Late Round Picks

Créé par: OldNYIfan
Date de création initiale: aoû 19, 2019
Publié: Aug 19 at 5:34 pm
Équipe: 2019-20 Maple Leafs de Toronto
Explications
Just a fun academic exercise arising out of a discussion I had with our esteemed colleague SammyT_51 the other day.
Signatures de joueurs autonomes
RFAANNÉESCAP HIT
Marner, Mitchell15 112 800 $
Transactions
TOR
  1. Weegar, MacKenzie
Détails additionnels:
7th round pick in 2013 (206th overall)
FLA
  1. 2020 7e round pick (EDM)
TOR
  1. Spurgeon, Jared
Détails additionnels:
6th round pick in 2008 (156th overall)
MIN
  1. 2020 6e round pick (TOR)
TOR
  1. Clifton, Connor
Détails additionnels:
5th round pick in 2013 (133rd overall)
BOS
  1. 2021 5e round pick (TOR)
TOR
  1. Lajoie, Maxime
Détails additionnels:
5th round pick in 2016 (also 133rd overall)
OTT
  1. 2022 5e round pick (TOR)
TOR
  1. Klingberg, John
Détails additionnels:
5th round pick in 2010 (131st overall)
DAL
  1. 2020 6e round pick (CAR)
  2. 2020 6e round pick (COL)
  3. 2020 7e round pick (SJS)
  4. 2020 7e round pick (STL)
  5. 2020 7e round pick (WPG)
Rachats de contrats
  • Mikhail Grabovski: 0 $
Transactions impliquant une retenue de salaire
  • Phil Kessel: 1 200 000 $ (15%)
ANNÉE DE REPÊCHAGERONDE 1RONDE 2RONDE 3RONDE 4RONDE 5RONDE 6RONDE 7
2020
TOR
CBJ
TOR
VGK
2021
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
2022
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS BONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2381 500 000 $81 499 999 $0 $172 500 $1 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
TOR
Moore, Trevor
775 000 $
AD, AG
RFA - 2
TOR
Matthews, Auston
11 634 000 $
C
UFA - 5
TOR
Marner, Mitchell
5 112 800 $
AD
UFA - 6
TOR
Johnsson, Andreas
3 400 000 $
AG
UFA - 4
TOR
Tavares, John
11 000 000 $
C
NMC
UFA - 6
TOR
Nylander, William
6 962 366 $
AD, C
UFA - 5
TOR
Petan, Nicolas
775 000 $
AG, AD, C
RFA - 2
TOR
Kerfoot, Alexander
3 500 000 $
C, AG
UFA - 4
TOR
Kapanen, Kasperi
3 200 000 $
AD
RFA - 3
TOR
Agostino, Kenny
737 500 $
AG
UFA - 2
TOR
Spezza, Jason
700 000 $
C, AD
NTC
UFA - 1
TOR
Bracco, Jeremy
842 500 $
AD
RFA - 1
TOR
Gauthier, Frédérik
675 000 $
C
RFA - 1
TOR
Åberg, Pontus
700 000 $
AD, AG
RFA - 1
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
TOR
Rielly, Morgan
5 000 000 $
DG
UFA - 3
DAL
Klingberg, John
4 250 000 $
DD
UFA - 3
TOR
Andersen, Frederik
5 000 000 $
G
NTC
UFA - 2
TOR
Muzzin, Jake
4 000 000 $
DG
UFA - 1
MIN
Spurgeon, Jared
5 187 500 $
DD
NMC
UFA - 1
TOR
Hutchinson, Michael
700 000 $
G
UFA - 1
OTT
Lajoie, Maxime
710 000 $
DG
RFA - 2
FLA
Weegar, MacKenzie
1 600 000 $
DD
RFA - 1
BOS
Clifton, Connor
725 000 $
DD
UFA - 1
Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
TOR
Hyman, Zach
2 250 000 $
AG
NTC
UFA - 2
TOR
Horton, Nathan
5 300 000 $
AD
NMC NTC
UFA - 1
TOR
Dermott, Travis
863 333 $
DG
RFA - 1
TOR
Clarkson, David
5 250 000 $
AD
NMC NTC
UFA - 1
TOR
Barrie, Tyson
2 750 000 $
DD
UFA - 1
TOR
Ceci, Cody
4 500 000 $
DD
UFA - 1
TOR
Schmaltz, Jordan
700 000 $
DD
RFA - 1

Code d'intégration

  • Pour afficher cette équipe sur un autre site Web ou blog, ajoutez ce iFrame à la page appropriée
  • Personnalisez les dimensions dans le code IFrame ci-dessous pour adapter votre site de manière appropriée. Minimum recommandé: 400px.

Texte intégré

Cliquer pour surligner
19 aoû à 17h36
#1
GM Hockeysaurus Rex
Rejoint: jui 2016
Messages: 10,030
Mentions "j'aime": 3,799
What people can take out of it is that you can build your D core in circa 5yrs with just late round picks from 2-3 drafts if your scouting department is very good, like Leafs, like Hurricanes etc..
Nikolay_Zherdev, OldNYIfan, AFOX10900 and 1 other person a aimé ceci.
19 aoû à 17h39
#2
Rejoint: mai 2015
Messages: 1,995
Mentions "j'aime": 552
Scott Cullen over at TSN did a study where he showed the likelihood of getting an NHLer (I believe defined as someone who plays 200 GP) decreases from first to 4th rounds as would be expected but then is stable from 4th to 7th rounds. It makes sense. Once your out of the top 100 or so depending on the year its a crap shoot

I'd be pretty aggressive at getting 6th and 7ths added in returns on my trades.

Ie trade a top 6 player for a prospect and a 2nd AND two 7ths
19 aoû à 17h56
#3
Rejoint: mai 2018
Messages: 8,833
Mentions "j'aime": 2,525
Quoting: SammyT_51
What people can take out of it is that you can build your D core in circa 5yrs with just late round picks from 2-3 drafts if your scouting department is very good, like Leafs, like Hurricanes etc..


I wonder what is the greater contributer, scouting or Development?
OldNYIfan et Sign_em_up000000 a aimé ceci.
19 aoû à 18h01
#4
Démarrer sujet
OldNYIfan
Rejoint: jun 2018
Messages: 6,046
Mentions "j'aime": 2,436
Quoting: LoganOllivier
I wonder what is the greater contributer, scouting or Development?


An excellent thought.

I remember a story Bill Torrey once told. They were drafting 13th (I think) and the guy they wanted, who I think was Rod Seiling, was picked by the team just ahead of them. So Torrey turned to his director of scouting and said, What are our options now? (Things were a lot simpler in the 1970's.) The guy said, There's a great two-way forward who is probably the best defensive winger on the table. Or there's this pure scorer from the QMJHL. Torrey says he told the guy, We'll take the scorer because we can always teach him to play defense. So the Islanders chose Mike Bossy.
Sign_em_up000000 a aimé ceci.
19 aoû à 18h15
#5
GM Hockeysaurus Rex
Rejoint: jui 2016
Messages: 10,030
Mentions "j'aime": 3,799
Quoting: LoganOllivier
I wonder what is the greater contributer, scouting or Development?


Pre-draft > scouting
Post-draft > development

Before draft you need to just scout in years prior to see their development without your influence and scouts of NHL teams are looking for the most talented and workable prospects there are.. that is before you draft that certain prospect. Afterwards you work with them, mostly for years carving the things in them they didnt have. If you are developing players oversees or junior leagues, scouts are not there to look for things but to mostly check on prospects development and steps. Perfect example is Timothy Liljegren. Great offensive talent with great possesion skills and offensive tools. In years prior to draft they saw that they can add this and that to his game. He is just 20 yrs old and Leafs managed to develop his defensive game along with existing offensive one to a level where it is highly valued.

Basically both are equally important in different roles throughout the development.
Sign_em_up000000 et OldNYIfan a aimé ceci.
19 aoû à 18h29
#6
Rejoint: mai 2018
Messages: 8,833
Mentions "j'aime": 2,525
Quoting: SammyT_51
Pre-draft > scouting
Post-draft > development

Before draft you need to just scout in years prior to see their development without your influence and scouts of NHL teams are looking for the most talented and workable prospects there are.. that is before you draft that certain prospect. Afterwards you work with them, mostly for years carving the things in them they didnt have. If you are developing players oversees or junior leagues, scouts are not there to look for things but to mostly check on prospects development and steps. Perfect example is Timothy Liljegren. Great offensive talent with great possesion skills and offensive tools. In years prior to draft they saw that they can add this and that to his game. He is just 20 yrs old and Leafs managed to develop his defensive game along with existing offensive one to a level where it is highly valued.

Basically both are equally important in different roles throughout the development.


Yeah of course but if we are specifically talking about the later rounds, I'd argue development has a greater impact on those players succeeding.
SammyT_51 a aimé ceci.
19 aoû à 19h10
#7
Rejoint: nov 2016
Messages: 566
Mentions "j'aime": 71
Quoting: LoganOllivier
Yeah of course but if we are specifically talking about the later rounds, I'd argue development has a greater impact on those players succeeding.


I would counter that by saying scouting is more important as one must find a player with both the raw talent that can be molded and the attitude and drive to allow said talent to be molded...
OldNYIfan a aimé ceci.
19 aoû à 19h45
#8
Rejoint: jan 2019
Messages: 203
Mentions "j'aime": 56
Quoting: SammyT_51
What people can take out of it is that you can build your D core in circa 5yrs with just late round picks from 2-3 drafts if your scouting department is very good, like Leafs, like Hurricanes etc..


Maybe I misunderstand what you are saying Sammy, but I read this as you are saying Toronto's scouting department did a good job in developing the defense with late round picks??

Reilly drafted 5th overall
Muzzin not drafted by Toronto
Ceci not drafted by Toronto
Barrie not drafted by Toronto
Harpur not drafted by Toronto
Schmaltz not drafted by Toronto
Marincin drafted 2nd round by Toronto
Holl not drafted by Toronto
Dermott drafted 2nd round by Toronto
Sandin drafted 1rst round by Toronto
Liljegren draftred 1rst round by Toronto

My apologies if I read this wrong.
19 aoû à 20h15
#9
Rejoint: jun 2019
Messages: 1,893
Mentions "j'aime": 900
Great topic and excellent discussion
OldNYIfan a aimé ceci.
20 aoû à 1h33
#10
GM Hockeysaurus Rex
Rejoint: jui 2016
Messages: 10,030
Mentions "j'aime": 3,799
Quoting: gmurrayt
Maybe I misunderstand what you are saying Sammy, but I read this as you are saying Toronto's scouting department did a good job in developing the defense with late round picks??

Reilly drafted 5th overall
Muzzin not drafted by Toronto
Ceci not drafted by Toronto
Barrie not drafted by Toronto
Harpur not drafted by Toronto
Schmaltz not drafted by Toronto
Marincin drafted 2nd round by Toronto
Holl not drafted by Toronto
Dermott drafted 2nd round by Toronto
Sandin drafted 1rst round by Toronto
Liljegren draftred 1rst round by Toronto

My apologies if I read this wrong.


I said that team is capable of building defense from late round picks if they have great scouting department like Leafs or Canes. Leafs are not doing it but they are capable if they wanted to.
20 aoû à 2h18
#11
Rejoint: mai 2018
Messages: 8,833
Mentions "j'aime": 2,525
Quoting: Canadian_Rednek
I would counter that by saying scouting is more important as one must find a player with both the raw talent that can be molded and the attitude and drive to allow said talent to be molded...


Sure they are both important
20 aoû à 12h04
#12
Rejoint: jan 2019
Messages: 203
Mentions "j'aime": 56
Quoting: SammyT_51
I said that team is capable of building defense from late round picks if they have great scouting department like Leafs or Canes. Leafs are not doing it but they are capable if they wanted to.


So the leafs scouting department COULD develop the defense if they WANTED to, but are not doing it. You do realize what an asinine statement that is. So the scouting department is just sitting back saying, "Yeah we COULD make this team better on defense but we are not going to." And management is sitting back saying "yeah our scouting department can do better but they don't want to. Oh well" Just curious, this great scouting department you refer to, how many impactful players have they drafted later than the 2nd round in the last 10 years? I can think of 1, AJ, drafted in 7th round I believe (that was a steal), perhaps Connor Brown (debatable) but other than that, I guess the scouting department just doesn't want to find those late round gems.
20 aoû à 12h19
#13
GM Hockeysaurus Rex
Rejoint: jui 2016
Messages: 10,030
Mentions "j'aime": 3,799
Quoting: gmurrayt
So the leafs scouting department COULD develop the defense if they WANTED to, but are not doing it. You do realize what an asinine statement that is. So the scouting department is just sitting back saying, "Yeah we COULD make this team better on defense but we are not going to." And management is sitting back saying "yeah our scouting department can do better but they don't want to. Oh well" Just curious, this great scouting department you refer to, how many impactful players have they drafted later than the 2nd round in the last 10 years? I can think of 1, AJ, drafted in 7th round I believe (that was a steal), perhaps Connor Brown (debatable) but other than that, I guess the scouting department just doesn't want to find those late round gems.


Huh?? Leafs are building the D core, they have like 4 guys coming in in next 1-2yrs and other guys in the system like Hollowell who is a late round steal for example.. 2015, 2018 and 2019 drafts were run by Dubas (what Im refering to as very good scouting department) and they picked guys that are on the cusp of NHL or in the NHL (Dermott 2nd round 2015, Lindgren, Bracco, Timashov, some guys didnt pan out but thats normal.. and 2018 draft where they got Durzi (who is gonna be NHLer for Kings), Hollowell, SDA, Holmberg (who is playing top-6 role in SHL a year after draft and was 6th round pick.. and 2019 draft there was Robertson in 2nd (STEAL!!!), Kokkonen, Koster, Loponen on defense who with right development can and few skilled forward prospects who have skills to be in NHL).. they dont need to build that D core right away but constantly. And they are doing it with many prospect in their organization.
 
Répondre
To create a post please Login or S'inscrire
Question:
Options:
Ajouter une option
Supprimer une option
Soumettre le sondage