Forums/Armchair-GM

Analysis of Habs cap space

Créé par: pinslack
Date de création initiale: jun 20, 2019
Publié: Jun 20 at 4:23 pm
Équipe: 2019-20 Canadiens de Montréal
Explications
I've been reading a lot of Armchair-GM posts last few weeks. I don’t usually contribute to forums even if I do read the posts. The fact that there’s no “thumbs up” or “like” function on Capfriendly to classify well thought posts from others make me click every post and some just make me lose my time with absurd trade/signing/numbers. But honestly most of the posts are interesting: they evaluate well the players and the needs of a team.

By contributing to the forum, as my first post, I want to establish the value of the players in our current roster or, in other words, how much cost the players in the Montreal Canadiens roster and how long would Bergevin sign them. To propose a realistic post, we have to in Bergevin’s head and think, as our first step, what term and AAV he would give to a player.

My first source to establish the value of a player is EW Contract Projections. You can find the data in a google : (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15E1qqh3OfHvvhbv_pICfKT7VR1jJEVhWQOyKviWLN54/edit#gid=707766415) Their projections give importance to advanced stats, but it do not seem to have a real impact on the value yet as the Kulak contract tells us.

My other source is the Compare this contract tool from Capfriendly.

Also, there’s a bit of my projection in there, coming a lot from the posts I’ve read here. So please feel free to criticize and contribute to this post to fix approximately the cap space Montreal would have during the summer!

Assuming we sign everyone in our current roster, the second step (and the fun part) would be to try to fix the needs of the Habs by signing UFA or trading. But before getting into the fun, let’s not neglect the first step!

tl;dr : help me fix the AAV and term of our guys

UFA
Benn = 2.3m AAV/2 years : If you take a look at the UFA, the offer for LD is really thin. There’s Gardner, Gunnarsson, Methot, Nemeth, Chariot and that’s about it. This places Benn in a good position where the demand can affect his value. Now, will there be demand? It would need a deeper analyse. IMO, his value can bring him closer to Coburn’s contract but the market could make it a 2.3m/2 years.

noticeable comparison :
Holden, signing age 31 (VGK) signed July 1st 2018 : 2.2/2 years
Pateryn, signing age 28 (MIN) signed July 1st 2018 : 2.25/3 years
Coburn, signing age 34 (TB) signed 18 June 2019 : 1.7/2 years

RFA
Lehkonen = 2.4m/2 years : EW Contract Projections projects Lehko at 2 years. I would have hesitate between 2 or 3. But they put Lehko at 3m which is too high when we compare IMO. Again, it might be the advanced stats that put him that high.

noticeable comparison:
Bjorkstrand, signing age 23 (CBL) signed 15 july 2018 : 2.5/3 years
Vatrano, signing age 25 (FLO) signed 23 feb 2019 : 2.53/3 years
Woods, signing age 22 (NJ) signed 22 sept. 2018 : 2.75/4 years

Armia = 2.8m/3 years : EW Contract Projections gives him 0.4m more than Lehko, which is about right to me. We saw Armia could bring something to the PP (and to the PK as Lehko) and he’s more dangerous in the offensive zone than Lehko. They put Armia either at 2 or 3 years with +0.5m AAV if it’s 3 years. To me, he’s closer to 3m than 2.5m for 3 years.

noticeable comparison:
Rust, signing age 26 (PIT) signed 26 june 2018 : 3.5/4 years
Haula, signing age 26 (VGK) signed 21 june 2017 : 2.75/3 years
Kase, signing age 25 (ANA) signed 15 august 2018 : 2.6/3 years

Reilly = 950k/ 1 year : Similar to what Kulak got last year in CGL. He has shown something early this year but that doesn’t get him over the million. One year because my guess is he’s not really in the plan for the future even if EW Contract Projections puts him at 2 year (and 1.3m AAV… again advanced stats I guess)

Hudon = 925k/ 1 year : When you haven’t proved anything with about 100 games played, you usually don’t get past the million (just do a quick research with Compare this contract). He has more potential than McCarron who got 875k last year mostly because he was a first pick.

Audette + Lernout are signed. Shinkaruk and McCarron seems like bust : not resigned.

Now : roster size is 23 max at the start of the season, we're at 27 with Alzner at Laval. Who do we get rid of? What should we do with the cap space? I might answer those questions in a second post.

Feel free to collaborate!
Signatures de joueurs autonomes
RFAANNÉESCAP HIT
Armia, Joel32 800 000 $
Lehkonen, Artturi22 400 000 $
Hudon, Charles1925 000 $
Reilly, Mike1950 000 $
UFAANNÉESCAP HIT
Benn, Jordie22 300 000 $
Rachats de contrats
  • Steve Mason: 1 366 667 $
Brûlé
  • Karl Alzner: 3 550 000 $ (4 625 000 $)
ANNÉE DE REPÊCHAGERONDE 1RONDE 2RONDE 3RONDE 4RONDE 5RONDE 6RONDE 7
2019
MTL
MTL
CBJ
MTL
MTL
ARI
CHI
EDM
MTL
WPG
2020
MTL
MTL
MTL
MTL
WPG
MTL
MTL
MTL
2021
MTL
MTL
MTL
MTL
MTL
MTL
MTL
TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS BONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2782 000 000 $79 593 809 $0 $3 525 000 $2 406 191 $

Formation

Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
MTL
Tatar, Tomas
4 800 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 2
MTL
Danault, Phillip
3 083 333 $
C
UFA - 2
MTL
Gallagher, Brendan
3 750 000 $
AD
UFA - 2
MTL
Drouin, Jonathan
5 500 000 $
AG, AD, C
UFA - 4
MTL
Domi, Max
3 150 000 $
C, AG
RFA - 1
MTL
Shaw, Andrew
3 900 000 $
C, AD
UFA - 3
MTL
Byron, Paul
3 400 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 4
MTL
Kotkaniemi, Jesperi
925 000 $
C, AG
RFA - 2
MTL
Armia, Joel
2 800 000 $
AD
UFA - 2
MTL
Weal, Jordan
1 400 000 $
C, AG
UFA - 2
MTL
Thompson, Nate
1 000 000 $
C
UFA - 1
MTL
Lehkonen, Artturi
2 400 000 $
AG, AD
RFA - 2
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
MTL
Mete, Victor
748 333 $
DG
RFA - 1
MTL
Weber, Shea
7 857 143 $
DD
UFA - 7
MTL
Price, Carey
10 500 000 $
G
NMC
UFA - 7
MTL
Kulak, Brett
1 850 000 $
DG
UFA - 3
MTL
Petry, Jeff
5 500 000 $
DD
NMC NTC
UFA - 2
MTL
Lindgren, Charlie
750 000 $
G
UFA - 2
MTL
Benn, Jordie
2 300 000 $
DG
UFA - 2
MTL
Juulsen, Noah
863 333 $
DD
RFA - 1
Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
MTL
Reilly, Mike
950 000 $
DG
UFA - 2
MTL
Folin, Christian
800 000 $
DD
UFA - 1
MTL
Deslauriers, Nicolas
950 000 $
AD, AG
UFA - 1
MTL
Weise, Dale
2 350 000 $
AD, AG
UFA - 1
MTL
Peca, Matthew
1 300 000 $
AG, C
UFA - 1
MTL
Hudon, Charles
925 000 $
AG, AD
RFA - 1
MTL
Poehling, Ryan
925 000 $
C
RFA - 2

Unités spéciales

Avantage numérique 1
Domi, M.
Shaw, A.
Armia, J.
Drouin, J.
Weber, S.
Avantage numérique 2
Kotkaniemi, J.
Danault, P.
Gallagher, B.
Mete, V.
Petry, J.
Infériorité numérique 1
Danault, P.
Lehkonen, A.
Benn, J.
Weber, S.
Infériorité numérique 2
Thompson, N.
Byron, P.
Kulak, B.
Petry, J.

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20 jun à 16h32
#1
Rejoint: jui 2018
Messages: 287
Mentions "j'aime": 87
Bergevin told the media that they wont sign Benn and they didnt make qualificatives offers to Audette and Lernout
20 jun à 16h33
#2
Rejoint: déc 2017
Messages: 131
Mentions "j'aime": 18
Also he did qualify Mccaron
20 jun à 16h47
#3
Rejoint: jun 2019
Messages: 46
Mentions "j'aime": 0
Pretty good analyse ,

Your point about Armia sounds good to me , I have never seen his impact from that point as you are.In my eyes Panik should replaced him and give more opportunites to HABS.

But that s mean only , Panik is a player whom I know so much better.

With your current space HABS need to sign reliable backup for season or two. McELHINNEY is someone who could help us.
20 jun à 16h49
#4
Frankyhabs
Rejoint: jun 2019
Messages: 751
Mentions "j'aime": 330
With this lineup, when KK will be ready to take more minutes, it could look like this :
Tatar-Danault-Gallagher (vs opposite 1st line)
Domi-KK-Shaw (vs opposite 2nd line)
Drouin-Poehling-Armia (vs opposite 3rd or 4th)
Byron-Weal-Lechko (vs opposite 3rd or 4th)
Would you be ok (confortable) with these lines ?
At D :
Mete-Weber
Kulak-Petry
??-Julsenn
Folin (7th)
With benn going to test UFA, Who would you put with Julsenn ? Ouelett ?
20 jun à 16h57
#5
Rejoint: nov 2018
Messages: 23
Mentions "j'aime": 8
In terms of cap space, a trade like last year (Steve Mason's trade) should be considered. I'm sure we can agree that next year should be a year of development for our young team and no major contract (Panarin, Duchesne, etc.) should be signed by the Habs.

The first team I thought of for this type of trade would be Vegas with Clarkson's contract. What do you think? What could we receive in this type of trade?
a1111 a aimé ceci.
20 jun à 16h59
#6
Rejoint: nov 2018
Messages: 23
Mentions "j'aime": 8
Quoting: beavereater
Bergevin told the media that they wont sign Benn and they didnt make qualificatives offers to Audette and Lernout


As per my understanding, Bergevin said that he would wait about Benn but he didn't told Habs wont sign him?
20 jun à 17h06
#7
Démarrer sujet
Rejoint: mai 2019
Messages: 129
Mentions "j'aime": 58
Modifié 20 jun à 17h18
Quoting: beavereater
Bergevin told the media that they wont sign Benn


Just heard it. That's not really surprising considering there's so few LD on the market. But will the contract look like Jack Johnson's one at PIT? I think not. For example, Moore at BOS signed 2.75m AAV for 5 years at 27 years old. At 31, Benn could get 3 years at about the same AAV (edit : probably more like 3m AAV actually)
Feel_the_cross a aimé ceci.
20 jun à 17h17
#8
Démarrer sujet
Rejoint: mai 2019
Messages: 129
Mentions "j'aime": 58
Quoting: Frankyhabs
With benn going to test UFA, Who would you put with Julsenn ? Ouelett ?


It could be a last chance for Rielly. But this will surely intensify the Gostisbehere trade rumors in Armchair GMs posts (even if, IMO, Flyers have a solid defense as it is with, at last, a solid goalkeeper)
20 jun à 17h29
#9
DomCholette
Rejoint: jui 2017
Messages: 2,190
Mentions "j'aime": 346
Good analysis but nothing really new.

Benn OUT IN Reilly, send Weise & Peca to Laval saves extra 2M + Benn 2,5= your New cap should be around 73M...
That leave us with 9M of free money without any tradesss Like moving Shaw +2nd for the Ghost or nothing irrealistic... as we will need to saves money for Domi payout next season! 7M$ if he make a second 60pts+!!!
Questions: What would be your target to ameliorate this team... only ONE move
jpsnow13 a aimé ceci.
20 jun à 17h29
#10
Démarrer sujet
Rejoint: mai 2019
Messages: 129
Mentions "j'aime": 58
Quoting: Feel_the_cross
Clarkson's contract


They might shop Eakins/Haula/Holden/Miller before shopping this 1 year contract that can be burried once the season is started. It's hard to fix a value for a LTIR too
Feel_the_cross a aimé ceci.
20 jun à 18h05
#11
Démarrer sujet
Rejoint: mai 2019
Messages: 129
Mentions "j'aime": 58
Quoting: DomCholette
Questions: What would be your target to ameliorate this team... only ONE move


It's all about the PP. Instead of being 30/31 (thanks Nashville), just getting +5 ranks would have gotten us into playoffs. Assuming that on 5v5 our guys continue their domination (the word is strong but we're not too far from it) - and that's a big assumption because we had like 6-7 guys with record seasons - a better PP makes the difference.

What is lacking on the PP is a good shooter (other than Weber). Galchenyuk and Paccio had the kind of shots we are lacking : from the high slots. Armia (which I think has potential on PP) has showed some abilities on PP but in the slot, close to the net, with his loooong and heavy stick, but thats not a shooter. Neither is Drouin, Domi (always looking for the pass) or Tatar, Gallagher (5v5 machines, but nothing special on PP).

I might elabore this comment on an other post, but for now, I'll simply say that Mete with Weber is a good duo with Weber slowing down (that does scare me). His skating really helps him just like Subban helped Markov to compensate his lack of speed. In short, we need a skater with Weber and I don't if Gostisbehere can do in defense what Mete does.

So I'll answer your question : sign Brad Hunt (1m 1 year, maybe he'll ask for 2 year) to replace Benn, put him on the 2nd PP and let's hope he gets us some goals (enough to jump 5 rank on PP). That's the most conservative option (and I know Bergevin would like that). That let us 8m to make a move during the year (if your 73m was right)
20 jun à 18h08
#12
DomCholette
Rejoint: jui 2017
Messages: 2,190
Mentions "j'aime": 346
Quoting: pinslack
It's all about the PP. Instead of being 30/31 (thanks Nashville), just getting +5 ranks would have gotten us into playoffs. Assuming that on 5v5 our guys continue their domination (the word is strong but we're not too far from it) - and that's a big assumption because we had like 6-7 guys with record seasons - a better PP makes the difference.

What is lacking on the PP is a good shooter (other than Weber). Galchenyuk and Paccio had the kind of shots we are lacking : from the high slots. Armia (which I think has potential on PP) has showed some abilities on PP but in the slot, close to the net, with his loooong and heavy stick, but thats not a shooter. Neither is Drouin, Domi (always looking for the pass) or Tatar, Gallagher (5v5 machines, but nothing special on PP).

I might elabore this comment on an other post, but for now, I'll simply say that Mete with Weber is a good duo with Weber slowing down (that does scare me). His skating really helps him just like Subban helped Markov to compensate his lack of speed. In short, we need a skater with Weber and I don't if Gostisbehere can do in defense what Mete does.

So I'll answer your question : sign Brad Hunt (1m 1 year, maybe he'll ask for 2 year) to replace Benn, put him on the 2nd PP and let's hope he gets us some goals (enough to jump 5 rank on PP). That's the most conservative option (and I know Bergevin would like that). That let us 8m to make a move during the year (if your 73m was right)
20 jun à 18h10
#13
DomCholette
Rejoint: jui 2017
Messages: 2,190
Mentions "j'aime": 346
Quoting: DomCholette


I agree Habs need a shooter on PP... that's why having a guy like Ghost would free up Weber or leave him for a big blast.
Otherwise, do you think Chariot in Winnipeg could be a good fit on the 2nd pair with Petry and first on PP?
jpsnow13 a aimé ceci.
20 jun à 18h30
#14
Démarrer sujet
Rejoint: mai 2019
Messages: 129
Mentions "j'aime": 58
Quoting: DomCholette
I agree Habs need a shooter on PP... that's why having a guy like Ghost would free up Weber or leave him for a big blast.
Otherwise, do you think Chariot in Winnipeg could be a good fit on the 2nd pair with Petry and first on PP?


On the market, for LD, there will be Benn (just confirmed), Gardner, Gunnarsson, Nemeth and Chariot (not much more offer for RD by the way). We can easily imagine that those guys will be overpayed and that is what scares me. It's why it is safer to go for a lower ranked guy like Hunt. Also, the solution on PP might not be by the addition of a defender, but by a winger. I'd want to see Mete-Weber and Kulak-Petry again before adding a top 4 LD because those guys still develop and, let's be honest, we aren't contender next year : at the very least we'll make the playoffs. After all, I'm conservative.
Feel_the_cross et DomCholette a aimé ceci.
20 jun à 21h30
#15
DomCholette
Rejoint: jui 2017
Messages: 2,190
Mentions "j'aime": 346
Quoting: pinslack
On the market, for LD, there will be Benn (just confirmed), Gardner, Gunnarsson, Nemeth and Chariot (not much more offer for RD by the way). We can easily imagine that those guys will be overpayed and that is what scares me. It's why it is safer to go for a lower ranked guy like Hunt. Also, the solution on PP might not be by the addition of a defender, but by a winger. I'd want to see Mete-Weber and Kulak-Petry again before adding a top 4 LD because those guys still develop and, let's be honest, we aren't contender next year : at the very least we'll make the playoffs. After all, I'm conservative.


I think we have the asset to get a guy like: Murray CBJ, TJ Brodie CGY, Ghost PHI with Lehko or Shaw + 2nd and a Mid Prospect like Evans, Olofsson etc...
21 jun à 2h13
#16
Rejoint: jan 2017
Messages: 388
Mentions "j'aime": 130
I love your work. It should always be done that way.

But, let be honest, that was the easy part. Once RFAs values are set (Benn is out and I hope Reilly doesn't get an offert) :

1. How can we unload some cap space (Weise, Alzner, Peca, Hudon... Shaw?)
2. How can we get a backup goalie that can get 10 wins out of 20 games at least?
3.How do we fix LD?
4. How do we fix the PP?


Quoting: DomCholette
I think we have the asset to get a guy like: Murray CBJ, TJ Brodie CGY, Ghost PHI with Lehko or Shaw + 2nd and a Mid Prospect like Evans, Olofsson etc...


Ghost/Gardiner (not reliable enough on defence for a first pairing)
Murray (big health issues)
Brodie (he plays right side)

None of those are good options.
pinslack a aimé ceci.
21 jun à 10h23
#17
Rejoint: jan 2017
Messages: 388
Mentions "j'aime": 130
Quoting: DomCholette
I think we have the asset to get a guy like: Murray CBJ, TJ Brodie CGY, Ghost PHI with Lehko or Shaw + 2nd and a Mid Prospect like Evans, Olofsson etc...


How about guys like Leddy, Brodin, Lindholm or Nurse instead ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Could be a bit more expensive, but if you include Shaw in a deal, you solve 3 of our 4 problems.

As for the backup goalie, there isn't a lot of choices with decent age/stats. I think Talbot and Mrazek would be the best options but they will stay with their team or go to the highest bidder on the market. If Elliot whants to sign for more than 3 mils/ 2 years, I call my buddy in Florida to get Reimer if I'm Bergy. How sick would it be to get Luongo instead? Not gonna happen though...
 
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