Forums/Armchair-GM

Lou OSes Marner 11M AAV Sign Karlsson Instead and Fire Babcock

Créé par: handsomeIAN
Date de création initiale: mai 12, 2019
Publié: May 12 at 2:35 pm
Équipe: 2019-20 Maple Leafs de Toronto
Explications
Threat of an OS from bad old Lou. We spend his money on EK and work a trade with NYI; like Kessel but this time TO is on the winning end.
Also, fire Babcock.
Signatures de joueurs autonomes
LISTE DE RÉSERVEANNÉESCAP HIT
Joshua, Dakota2700 000 $
McGregor, Ryan3700 000 $
Dzierkals, Martins2925 000 $
Kizimov, Semyon3800 000 $
Král, Filip3700 000 $
RFAANNÉESCAP HIT
Johnsson, Andreas43 740 000 $
Kapanen, Kasperi22 260 000 $
Baptiste, Nicholas1800 000 $
Gagné, Gabriel1800 000 $
Carcone, Michael1700 000 $
UFAANNÉESCAP HIT
Karlsson, Erik710 000 000 $
Transactions
TOR
  1. Benning, Matthew
EDM
  1. Brown, Connor
TOR
  1. Pulock, Ryan
  2. 2019 1e round pick (NYI)
  3. 2020 1e round pick (NYI)
  4. 2020 4e round pick (NYI)
NYI
  1. Zaitsev, Nikita
  2. Marner, Mitchell [Droits de RFA]
TOR
  1. Gáborík, Marián
  2. MacArthur, Clarke
OTT
  1. Marleau, Patrick
Rachats de contrats
  • Mikhail Grabovski: 0 $
Transactions impliquant une retenue de salaire
  • Phil Kessel: 1 200 000 $ (15%)
ANNÉE DE REPÊCHAGERONDE 1RONDE 2RONDE 3RONDE 4RONDE 5RONDE 6RONDE 7
2019
NYI
TOR
TOR
TOR
STL
TOR
TOR
DAL
2020
TOR
NYI
TOR
TOR
TOR
NYI
TOR
TOR
EDM
SJS
2021
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS BONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2283 000 000 $78 769 699 $0 $215 000 $4 230 301 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
TOR
Hyman, Zach
2 250 000 $
AG
NTC
UFA - 2
TOR
Tavares, John
11 000 000 $
C
NMC
UFA - 6
TOR
Nylander, William
6 962 366 $
AD, C
UFA - 5
TOR
Johnsson, Andreas
3 740 000 $
AG
UFA - 4
TOR
Matthews, Auston
11 634 000 $
C
UFA - 5
TOR
Kapanen, Kasperi
2 260 000 $
AD
RFA - 3
TOR
Mikheyev, Ilya
925 000 $
AG, AD
RFA - 1
TOR
Kadri, Nazem
4 500 000 $
C
NTC
UFA - 3
TOR
Bracco, Jeremy
842 500 $
AD
RFA - 1
TOR
Moore, Trevor
775 000 $
AD, AG
RFA - 2
TOR
Gauthier, Frédérik
675 000 $
C
RFA - 1
TOR
Korshkov, Yegor
925 000 $
AD
RFA - 2
TOR
Petan, Nicolas
775 000 $
AG, AD, C
RFA - 2
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
TOR
Rielly, Morgan
5 000 000 $
DG
UFA - 3
Karlsson, Erik
10 000 000 $
DD
NMC
UFA - 8
TOR
Andersen, Frederik
5 000 000 $
G
NTC
UFA - 2
TOR
Muzzin, Jake
4 000 000 $
DG
UFA - 1
NYI
Pulock, Ryan
2 000 000 $
DD
RFA - 1
TOR
Sparks, Garret
750 000 $
G
UFA - 1
TOR
Dermott, Travis
863 333 $
DG
RFA - 1
EDM
Benning, Matthew
1 900 000 $
DD
RFA - 1
TOR
Kivihalme, Teemu
792 500 $
DG
RFA - 1
Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
TOR
Horton, Nathan
5 300 000 $
AD
NMC NTC
UFA - 1
OTT
Gáborík, Marián
4 875 000 $
AD
UFA - 2
OTT
MacArthur, Clarke
4 650 000 $
AG
NTC
UFA - 1

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12 mai à 14h41
#1
LongtimeLeafsufferer
Rejoint: jui 2015
Messages: 27,283
Mentions "j'aime": 5,832
Why would Ottawa do that trade? I'd rather wait for the offer sheet, instead of make a trade you don't like. Rather hold the long term cap space instead of spending it Karlsson.
Jamiepo a aimé ceci.
12 mai à 14h43
#2
get off my lawn...
Rejoint: jui 2018
Messages: 9,246
Mentions "j'aime": 4,158
Quoting: palhal
Why would Ottawa do that trade? I'd rather wait for the offer sheet, instead of make a trade you don't like. Rather hold the long term cap space instead of spending it Karlsson.


To add to this (which I also agree with)...

For what seems like the Millionth time I’ve had to point this out... Karlsson will be signed by another team long before a signed sheet comes in on marner.

The leafs will not spend his cap money before that sheet arrives.
12 mai à 14h48
#3
j_cash08
Rejoint: mai 2019
Messages: 366
Mentions "j'aime": 89
Quoting: palhal
Why would Ottawa do that trade? I'd rather wait for the offer sheet, instead of make a trade you don't like. Rather hold the long term cap space instead of spending it Karlsson.


Ottawa would do this because their owner is cheap and would not want to be paying someone to not play. Marleau would at least slot into the linup every night.
12 mai à 14h51
#4
LongtimeLeafsufferer
Rejoint: jui 2015
Messages: 27,283
Mentions "j'aime": 5,832
Quoting: jcash08
Ottawa would do this because their owner is cheap and would not want to be paying someone to not play. Marleau would at least slot into the linup every night.


C'mon. That's ridiculous. Do you really think Marleau is going to waive his NMC to Ottawa? Isn't McArthur's contract insured, covered by insurance?
dca919 a aimé ceci.
12 mai à 14h52
#5
Islanders Fan
Rejoint: mai 2016
Messages: 3,226
Mentions "j'aime": 705
Why would the Isles make that trade? Just offersheet and give up the compensation.
12 mai à 14h56
#6
BootBoi
Rejoint: jui 2017
Messages: 2,165
Mentions "j'aime": 269
Marner+Kadri+Zaitsev
4
Kessel+Matta+1st round 2019..-~
12 mai à 14h56
#7
BootBoi
Rejoint: jui 2017
Messages: 2,165
Mentions "j'aime": 269
Muzzin back to L.A.
4 Phaneuf..-~
blowing_the_zone a aimé ceci.
12 mai à 14h59
#8
Rejoint: mai 2018
Messages: 1,821
Mentions "j'aime": 1,262
Quoting: BootBoi
Muzzin back to L.A.
4 Phaneuf..-~


Lol
12 mai à 15h01
#9
BootBoi
Rejoint: jui 2017
Messages: 2,165
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Kapanen 4 Clarkson..-~
12 mai à 15h03
#10
j_cash08
Rejoint: mai 2019
Messages: 366
Mentions "j'aime": 89
Quoting: palhal
C'mon. That's ridiculous. Do you really think Marleau is going to waive his NMC to Ottawa? Isn't McArthur's contract insured, covered by insurance?


I didn't say anything about his NMC that's a different story.

But it is the same reason Toronto had the Nathan Horton for Clarkson trade with Columbus, but Clarkson got injured shortly after and it didn't pan out the way Columbus would have liked.
12 mai à 15h11
#11
LongtimeLeafsufferer
Rejoint: jui 2015
Messages: 27,283
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Quoting: jcash08
I didn't say anything about his NMC that's a different story.

But it is the same reason Toronto had the Nathan Horton for Clarkson trade with Columbus, but Clarkson got injured shortly after and it didn't pan out the way Columbus would have liked.


Well, you didn't have to say anything about Marleau's NMC. It's a fact. It's not different story. And certainly if McArthur's salary is insured, it's not a cash payout by the owner.
Actually the Clarkson traded turned out perfectly for CBJ. They didn't have to pay out of pocket for the injured Horton, and insurance paid for Clarkson's contract. Clarkson's LTIR gave Columbus space though they certainly miscalculated the value of Karlson and allowed Vegas to claim him in the expansion draft.
12 mai à 15h12
#12
Rejoint: mai 2018
Messages: 1,821
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Apparently Babcock isnt going anywhere. Or so Dubas has said...

Although, this is what i think could be going on behind the scenes..

- there is an actual divide between Dubas and Babcock insofar as roster construction, player usage, adaptability etc
- a bet a whole buck that there was a serious review of Babcock at seasons end, and that expectations have been discussed and that the leash has been shorted
- next season could be a step back and its the wrong time to fire Babs and bring in Keefe. If it goes to pots next year it'll be on Babcock and his head will be offered on a platter to the hockey gods and then Keefe comes in. But if Babcock is fired now, and it goes to pots next year (because its looking like it could be a step back kinda of a year regardless of who the coach is), then it'll be on Dubas and his head will be on the platter.. I don't see a young GM putting himself that position so early in his career. I think Dubas is being patient here (if only for self preservation), that Keefe is Dubas's man, and will be the coach of the leafs when the time is right..
slickers a aimé ceci.
12 mai à 15h24
#13
Rejoint: jun 2018
Messages: 896
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Quoting: palhal
C'mon. That's ridiculous. Do you really think Marleau is going to waive his NMC to Ottawa? Isn't McArthur's contract insured, covered by insurance?


yeah the trade itself is moot since zero change he would waive it to go to probably the worst destination in the league right now.
12 mai à 15h32
#14
slickers
Rejoint: mai 2019
Messages: 26
Mentions "j'aime": 5
not sure I agree with all the schematics of this thread, but this is more worthy of reading then some other garbage out there
blowing_the_zone a aimé ceci.
12 mai à 15h46
#15
Démarrer sujet
Rejoint: avr 2019
Messages: 31
Mentions "j'aime": 1
Quoting: palhal
C'mon. That's ridiculous. Do you really think Marleau is going to waive his NMC to Ottawa? Isn't McArthur's contract insured, covered by insurance?


80% of the real money is covered by insurance, but the cap hit doesn't count towards their floor. After signing bonuses OTT would end up paying Marleau around the same real money but would save $5M in getting to the cap floor. It's a big real money saving move for Melnyk.
12 mai à 15h53
#16
Démarrer sujet
Rejoint: avr 2019
Messages: 31
Mentions "j'aime": 1
Quoting: joshelkin
Why would the Isles make that trade? Just offersheet and give up the compensation.


Compensation would be 4 1st rounders. It's conceivable that they might prefer a trade and I tried to make the value realistic. When the Leafs traded for Kessel, it was because Toronto was threatening an offer sheet. The Bruins and Leafs decided to go to the table and make a trade instead.
OS compensation is static; teams might mutually look to modify the terms of the exchange and so the obvious solution is a trade.
12 mai à 15h55
#17
Démarrer sujet
Rejoint: avr 2019
Messages: 31
Mentions "j'aime": 1
Quoting: Jamiepo
To add to this (which I also agree with)...

For what seems like the Millionth time I’ve had to point this out... Karlsson will be signed by another team long before a signed sheet comes in on marner.

The leafs will not spend his cap money before that sheet arrives.


The scenario is the threat of an offer sheet resulting in a trade. There's no real value in Lou concealing his intent to OS Marner and as much as I dislike the guy I'd wager that he'd consider it gentlemanly to be upfront about his interest if asked.
Jamiepo a aimé ceci.
12 mai à 15h59
#18
Démarrer sujet
Rejoint: avr 2019
Messages: 31
Mentions "j'aime": 1
Quoting: palhal
Why would Ottawa do that trade? I'd rather wait for the offer sheet, instead of make a trade you don't like. Rather hold the long term cap space instead of spending it Karlsson.


There's no scenario where the Leafs should not be spending all their cap space every year (or any team, really). You need to pay attention to the long term outlook, obviously, but if rebuilding you should be weaponizing it every year to acquire assets and if not you should be maxing it out to compete/acquire assets. Held cap space simply expires; it's a waste!
Acquiring the best D in the league on a long term deal, who is a RHD, is maybe the best possible use of cap space for the Leafs right now. The time for them to compete started three seasons ago with Matthews, Marner and Nylander on ELCs, instead, Lou clogged up the cap with half-measures designed to "build character" because he considers hockey teams his own personal doll house and doesn't understand aging curves or the salary cap. So instead, the time to compete is now, while they are still young.
12 mai à 16h04
#19
Rejoint: mai 2018
Messages: 1,821
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Quoting: slickers
not sure I agree with all the schematics of this thread, but this is more worthy of reading then some other garbage out there


That is precisely why I come to Capfriendly .. to get my daily dose of hockey info and avoid the media knuckleheads
12 mai à 16h04
#20
Barzal4208
Rejoint: mai 2019
Messages: 81
Mentions "j'aime": 12
Quoting: handsomeIAN
Compensation would be 4 1st rounders. It's conceivable that they might prefer a trade and I tried to make the value realistic. When the Leafs traded for Kessel, it was because Toronto was threatening an offer sheet. The Bruins and Leafs decided to go to the table and make a trade instead.
OS compensation is static; teams might mutually look to modify the terms of the exchange and so the obvious solution is a trade.


Perhaps, but it isnt going to include Pulock or Dobson. Take Leddy to lessen the draft pick haul or otherwise we just soon lose the drat picks
12 mai à 16h20
#21
Rejoint: mai 2018
Messages: 1,821
Mentions "j'aime": 1,262
Quoting: handsomeIAN
There's no scenario where the Leafs should not be spending all their cap space every year (or any team, really). You need to pay attention to the long term outlook, obviously, but if rebuilding you should be weaponizing it every year to acquire assets and if not you should be maxing it out to compete/acquire assets. Held cap space simply expires; it's a waste!
Acquiring the best D in the league on a long term deal, who is a RHD, is maybe the best possible use of cap space for the Leafs right now. The time for them to compete started three seasons ago with Matthews, Marner and Nylander on ELCs, instead, Lou clogged up the cap with half-measures designed to "build character" because he considers hockey teams his own personal doll house and doesn't understand aging curves or the salary cap. So instead, the time to compete is now, while they are still young.


I agree with a whole lot of this, especially your rationale on how to manage the cap and why a team should manage it that way.

Personally, I'm not sold on EK if only because I think his history with injuries has a taken a greater toll than what's being let on. I get it that he's still putting up points and playing well but there's times when you watch skate that something seems wrong.. could be something, could be nothing, it could just be me.

I think Lou gets a bad rap sometimes. Some of that is deserved and some not. He did alot of good in leafland in the time he was here, not the least if which was establishing order and credibility with the organization. We were a joke before he got here.. a not a funny one.

The one thing that baffles me with Lou is the Marleau contract. Given your rationale for how to manage the cap, and my belief that Marleau's 3 yr contract was set up as a 2 yr deal, then why didnt Lou just pay the 9M + over 2 years to give him his 18.75 M instead of paying that amount over 3 years?

Maybe my take has been wrong the whole time and Marleau always had every intention of playing the third year. And if that is true, then signing Marleau to that third year was a magor fail on Lou. If Marleau is around next season it really does put the leafs in a pickle.. that would be on Lou.
12 mai à 16h22
#22
Islanders Fan
Rejoint: mai 2016
Messages: 3,226
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Quoting: handsomeIAN
Compensation would be 4 1st rounders. It's conceivable that they might prefer a trade and I tried to make the value realistic. When the Leafs traded for Kessel, it was because Toronto was threatening an offer sheet. The Bruins and Leafs decided to go to the table and make a trade instead.
OS compensation is static; teams might mutually look to modify the terms of the exchange and so the obvious solution is a trade.


Maybe they reach a middle ground in this scenario, but it wouldn't include Pulock/Dobson/Wilde. I'd rather keep Pulock, not accept a cap dump in Zaitsev, and just pay the 4 firsts if these are the two options
12 mai à 16h29
#23
Rejoint: jun 2018
Messages: 6,157
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just lame arguments here. OS. FIrst off like no team OS players because of the unwritten rule.
The second is, any offer sheet that would come in is probably going to come in from a winning team. Bravo in getting 4 late round 1st round picks. I'm sure that will really bring you back the type of quality you are losing in Marner. Hell I would be more than happy to give you the penguins next 4 first rounders for Marner. You'll be picking 25+ every year for the next 4 years. Good luck with that.
Third, never does the team trading a really good player get the value back in a trade. It's why they lost on the Kessel trade. It's why Ottawa lost on the Stone, Hoffman, and Karlsson trades. It's why Chicago lost on the Panarin trade. We can go on here but honestly I'm sure you get the point by now.
Just extremely ignorant arguments here. The best thing TO can do is sign Marner. He'll cost 11.6 or so. It's worth it.
12 mai à 16h50
#24
Rejoint: mai 2018
Messages: 1,821
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Quoting: pharrow
just lame arguments here. OS. FIrst off like no team OS players because of the unwritten rule.
The second is, any offer sheet that would come in is probably going to come in from a winning team. Bravo in getting 4 late round 1st round picks. I'm sure that will really bring you back the type of quality you are losing in Marner. Hell I would be more than happy to give you the penguins next 4 first rounders for Marner. You'll be picking 25+ every year for the next 4 years. Good luck with that.
Third, never does the team trading a really good player get the value back in a trade. It's why they lost on the Kessel trade. It's why Ottawa lost on the Stone, Hoffman, and Karlsson trades. It's why Chicago lost on the Panarin trade. We can go on here but honestly I'm sure you get the point by now.
Just extremely ignorant arguments here. The best thing TO can do is sign Marner. He'll cost 11.6 or so. It's worth it.


If the Penguins offered up 4 firsts I hope the leafs would take it and run. We now have 7 1st round picks over the next 4 years to spend like drunken sailors if we choose to .. and package those 1sts up in trades to rebalance our cap and address roster needs, all while not putting much stress on our draft and develop model.

But riddle me this Pharrow.. if the Pens gave up the 4 1sts, what do they need to do to make their cap work and the roster better? And how would that make the pens a better team?

Not saying it can't be done, just that I'd actually like to see it so I can better understand how Marner is that valuable to team success, and how keeping him and giving him whatever he wants is better than what I can construct with 4 firsts and Marners cap space in this fake gm game..
gregb569 a aimé ceci.
12 mai à 18h49
#25
Démarrer sujet
Rejoint: avr 2019
Messages: 31
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Quoting: bkt42bkt42
Perhaps, but it isnt going to include Pulock or Dobson. Take Leddy to lessen the draft pick haul or otherwise we just soon lose the drat picks


They're getting Mitch Marner here, a star that everyone seems to think should be paid $11M. I don't think that Pulock and a 4th is a shocking return in the place of two 1sts. Pulock is good but the Isles seemkind of half-hearted about him, I don't know. He should probably be playing more than every other D on the PP and EV STR and he isn't so clearly they don't understand what they have in him.
 
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