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Toronto Maple Leafs signed Auston Matthews (5 Years / $11,634,000 AAV)

Was this a good signing?
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6 fév à 12h41
#201
oyeahdj
Rejoint: déc 2018
Messages: 9
Mentions "j'aime": 5
Quoting: Jetman
Exactly...a small sample...every year it will be...4-7 games.


Hahaha. I hope not, but until they prove otherwise your commend still stings smile
6 fév à 13h09
#202
J.L.
Rejoint: jui 2018
Messages: 117
Mentions "j'aime": 23
I don't know if anyone brought this up but maybe this is the best Dubas could do because of the offer sheet threat. Matthews agreed to make a deal mid season but the money had to be high up. I mean, it could have been even worse for the Leafs.
6 fév à 13h35
#203
Rejoint: nov 2015
Messages: 4,241
Mentions "j'aime": 423
I couldnt even give two s**** of the opinions in this forum. I rather trust the manager of a national hockey team then to let someone hiding behind a screen telling me its a bad signing. Get over yourself you aren't a professional at any of this stuff and none of you know a quarter of the data and info that goes into these contracts and negotiations.
6 fév à 17h05
#204
Rejoint: déc 2017
Messages: 793
Mentions "j'aime": 251
Quoting: mcoach69
and if Marner 9M they are at 80.9M with 16 players under contract because Horton has to be on the opening training camp roster before he goes on LTIR who gets traded Marleau Kadri Nylander Muzzin Zaitsev or Rielly


I've been trying to make this point all season. Even with the Cap rising to around $83M, there's no way they can keep Nylander. Here's why: Marleau will be a pending UFA next season and he's not tradable w/o major salary retention. Kadri is too valuable to trade at his modest cap hit. Rielly is one of their most important players and there's no way he's going anywhere. So they go for the Cup this year and then they lose Gardiner for nothing and Nylander in a trade. But at least they can trade Nylander for a cheaper roster player and still be Cup contenders moving forward.
6 fév à 17h18
#205
Rejoint: jun 2018
Messages: 2,549
Mentions "j'aime": 818
Quoting: Brian2016
I've been trying to make this point all season. Even with the Cap rising to around $83M, there's no way they can keep Nylander. Here's why: Marleau will be a pending UFA next season and he's not tradable w/o major salary retention. Kadri is too valuable to trade at his modest cap hit. Rielly is one of their most important players and there's no way he's going anywhere. So they go for the Cup this year and then they lose Gardiner for nothing and Nylander in a trade. But at least they can trade Nylander for a cheaper roster player and still be Cup contenders moving forward.


Why trade Nylander before you move out bad contracts or depth guys?
The Jets aren't going to trade Ehlers because they are in a crunch, they are going to trade Kulikov and Perreault. Same goes with the leafs. 1 and 2 on the list is z and brown, long before Nylander is put on the block
6 fév à 17h40
#206
Rejoint: déc 2017
Messages: 793
Mentions "j'aime": 251
Quoting: Random2152
Why trade Nylander before you move out bad contracts or depth guys?
The Jets aren't going to trade Ehlers because they are in a crunch, they are going to trade Kulikov and Perreault. Same goes with the leafs. 1 and 2 on the list is z and brown, long before Nylander is put on the block


WPG is gonna be in for a rude awakening when they find out there's no demand for overpaid depth Centers like Perrault and Little. Nylander will never be traded if his production stays where it is right now, I'll give you that. But Tor is set to have about $20M allocated to Defense next year. Most contenders have at least $25M spent of D and some have around $30M. I cannot see TOR contending with TBL with such an inexperienced and untested D.
GeraltofRivia a aimé ceci.
6 fév à 17h50
#207
Rejoint: jun 2018
Messages: 2,549
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Quoting: Brian2016
WPG is gonna be in for a rude awakening when they find out there's no demand for overpaid depth Centers like Perrault and Little. Nylander will never be traded if his production stays where it is right now, I'll give you that. But Tor is set to have about $20M allocated to Defense next year. Most contenders have at least $25M spent of D and some have around $30M. I cannot see TOR contending with TBL with such an inexperienced and untested D.


Well the inexperienced part might be solved this year (let's hope).
Have you seen the D core pit won with 2 years ago? You know, the one with #1RD Ron Hainsey?
In terms of selling off guys for wpg, EDM will take em. Still better than most of what they got. Either way I'm not sure they expect more than a conditional 7th. Cap space is the real prize
6 fév à 21h22
#208
Rejoint: déc 2017
Messages: 793
Mentions "j'aime": 251
Quoting: Random2152
Well the inexperienced part might be solved this year (let's hope).
Have you seen the D core pit won with 2 years ago? You know, the one with #1RD Ron Hainsey?
In terms of selling off guys for wpg, EDM will take em. Still better than most of what they got. Either way I'm not sure they expect more than a conditional 7th. Cap space is the real prize


Exactly. That's why teams like NJD, CAR, and COL are in such enviable positions moving forward. Cap space is a huge asset, especially during a rebuild/retool. How badly would EDM and DET want about $5M in cap space right now? Well CAR and NJD are gonna have close to $20M this summer...Mark Stone...
Random2152 a aimé ceci.
7 fév à 9h25
#209
Rejoint: fév 2017
Messages: 53
Mentions "j'aime": 5
Quoting: djoyea
Fair point on the away games. I would think they could still play a night with 5 D or 11 forwards if that were the case. 21 (7d) might make them more comfortable.


Not to mention if someone actually gets hurt. You'll need cap space to even call someone up. And if you have the cap space to call them up, they should've been on the roster anyways. You're just setting the team up for failure if you plan on running a 20 man roster with 0 cap space.
djoyea a aimé ceci.
7 fév à 13h10
#210
oyeahdj
Rejoint: déc 2018
Messages: 9
Mentions "j'aime": 5
Quoting: CaseOfTastykakes
Not to mention if someone actually gets hurt. You'll need cap space to even call someone up. And if you have the cap space to call them up, they should've been on the roster anyways. You're just setting the team up for failure if you plan on running a 20 man roster with 0 cap space.


Agree it's not ideal, and I doubt they would run a 20 man roster for any extended periods of time if they were up against the cap. But there is some merit if they are close to it, to try and run a 20 man roster for home games and bank the accrual of cap space for later in the season. LTIR is an option if guys get hurt as well.
7 fév à 13h21
#211
Rejoint: avr 2017
Messages: 397
Mentions "j'aime": 61
Quoting: Brian2016
Exactly. That's why teams like NJD, CAR, and COL are in such enviable positions moving forward. Cap space is a huge asset, especially during a rebuild/retool. How badly would EDM and DET want about $5M in cap space right now? Well CAR and NJD are gonna have close to $20M this summer...Mark Stone...


In which world is DET hurting for cap space? Their cap squeeze is over, at least until the next bad contracts have been given out. Same with WPG; while they are in a tight spot, the shorter term and higher quality of their "bad" contracts allows them some flexibility. The teams in trouble are the ones who pay their best players a huge percentage of the cap - i.e. EDM and TOR (add in a bad contract or 2 and it gets much worse). TOR will manage though because they have depth and some good contracts to go along with it. Edmonton as we've already seen, will not. Toronto having to trade Zaitsev, Brown, Kapanen, Johnnson or even Nylander won't be the end of the world. Their problem will only come if a huge offer sheet comes for Marner and they decide to match (12+ - here's hoping someone does it)
Brian2016 a aimé ceci.
7 fév à 14h00
#212
Rejoint: jui 2018
Messages: 32
Mentions "j'aime": 22
I think this contract is hard to evaluate because it's different then what has been done recently, but it's similar to used to be the norm for RFA superstars coming off their ELCs.

Malkin, Stamkos, Crosby, Toews, Kane, Tavares, Perry and Getzlaf all signed 5 (6 in Tavares case) year deals for between about 10.5% of the cap and 17% of the cap (except Tavares at 8.55%).

Matthews first year will be something around 14% which puts him quite a bit lower than Crosby at 17% or Malkin at 15.34%, but higher than pretty much everyone else in that group. All of those contracts turned out to be steals by the end of them. In the case of Crosby, Malkin, Kane, Stamkos, their 3rd contracts also look like steals, while Getzlaf and Toews seem to at least be fair, and Perry's being the most regrettable. Tavares is too early to tell if they have gotten enough good out of the early returns to say it was a good deal.

There are pros and cons to a 5 year deal, but I don't think it's as simple as saying he's a UFA at the end therefore it's bad.

The biggest risk of a 5 year deal is that he may walk away after 5 years. That's a risk, that's 3 less years of a player (under the assumption he would walk away at the end of 8 too.)

However, if you need to step up and sign a player as a UFA as 26 year old UFA is less likely to create a lot of regret than a 29 year old one, especially if you have to go max term.

Without thinking about the numbers, I would think that signing Matthews for his 5 year number now, then 8, will give you better overall value per dollar spent against the cap then if they end up in a situation where he signs 8 then another 8.

Personally, I've never really understood why this changed. Back when you could sign players for as long as you wanted, RFAs typically got 5-6 years. When they made the max term 8, why did longer on RFAs become the norm?

I think another thing that will make it difficult to evaluate is that the league is going through a shift that started a few years ago. GMs started to become less willing to hand out longer terms with big money to older UFAs. Since this is a cap league, this meant that those cap dollars that were no longer being spent elsewhere, pretty much just flowed to a different group, and that group was younger players.

Essentially players were put in this situation where they were drafted, go horribly underpaid for 3 years, then got a contract they had to fight for, so they could just get badly underpaid for 6-8 years, then had to strike it rick as a UFA and get massively overpaid to compensate them for the years of being underpaid. So if GMs just decide to stop overpaying UFAs, or doing so at a lesser amount, then RFAs are going fight to get more fairly paid while they are in their prime.

Strategically, it makes sense to pay the most during the years a player will be most productive. So in that vein, how good or bad this deal is will depend on two things. Do the Leafs make good use of the shorter term cap savings? Do they make the right decisions when the contract nears it's end?

If Leafs Management is smart, keeps a competitive roster together, uses the space, and makes sure there aren't bad or dead cap money on there when Matthews comes up, it puts them in a position to make this a good deal. If they mismanage things, then longer term would have been better.
Random2152, Jarvis et JLeafs a aimé ceci.
7 fév à 14h23
#213
Rejoint: déc 2017
Messages: 793
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Quoting: pavelisgoat
In which world is DET hurting for cap space? Their cap squeeze is over, at least until the next bad contracts have been given out. Same with WPG; while they are in a tight spot, the shorter term and higher quality of their "bad" contracts allows them some flexibility. The teams in trouble are the ones who pay their best players a huge percentage of the cap - i.e. EDM and TOR (add in a bad contract or 2 and it gets much worse). TOR will manage though because they have depth and some good contracts to go along with it. Edmonton as we've already seen, will not. Toronto having to trade Zaitsev, Brown, Kapanen, Johnnson or even Nylander won't be the end of the world. Their problem will only come if a huge offer sheet comes for Marner and they decide to match (12+ - here's hoping someone does it)


I get what you're saying but I would argue that it's rarely the McDavid, Matthews, or Seguin type contracts that get teams in cap trouble. It's always the $5M-$6M AAV deals that come back to haunt teams. Take EDM as an example. Draisaitl at $8.5M and McDavid at $12.5M makes up about 25% of the cap, but they account for almost all of EDM's offense. They're great players now, and will be the foundation of that team for years to come. The reason they're in so much trouble lies with the contracts of Lucic ($6M AAV), Russell ($4M AAV), Sekera ($5.5M AAV), and Spooner. They've received almost no production form these 4 players despite a combined cap hit of over $17.5M. Throw in their below average goaltending and you see the real root of their problems. Poor drafting and bad contracts always equal disastrous results.
pavelisgoat a aimé ceci.
7 fév à 14h29
#214
Rejoint: déc 2017
Messages: 793
Mentions "j'aime": 251
Quoting: pavelisgoat
In which world is DET hurting for cap space? Their cap squeeze is over, at least until the next bad contracts have been given out. Same with WPG; while they are in a tight spot, the shorter term and higher quality of their "bad" contracts allows them some flexibility. The teams in trouble are the ones who pay their best players a huge percentage of the cap - i.e. EDM and TOR (add in a bad contract or 2 and it gets much worse). TOR will manage though because they have depth and some good contracts to go along with it. Edmonton as we've already seen, will not. Toronto having to trade Zaitsev, Brown, Kapanen, Johnnson or even Nylander won't be the end of the world. Their problem will only come if a huge offer sheet comes for Marner and they decide to match (12+ - here's hoping someone does it)


DET also still has several bad contracts on the books moving forward despite the fact that guys like Nyquist, Kronwall, and Howard are pending UFA's. Nielsen, Abdelkader, DeKeyser, and Ericsson all still have term remaining on their current contracts and have all underperformed. They'll never be able to fully rebuild until they rid themselves of these bad contracts for veteran players. WPG and TOR are in a dream world compared to DET and EDM.
7 fév à 14h49
#215
Rejoint: déc 2017
Messages: 793
Mentions "j'aime": 251
Quoting: pavelisgoat
In which world is DET hurting for cap space? Their cap squeeze is over, at least until the next bad contracts have been given out. Same with WPG; while they are in a tight spot, the shorter term and higher quality of their "bad" contracts allows them some flexibility. The teams in trouble are the ones who pay their best players a huge percentage of the cap - i.e. EDM and TOR (add in a bad contract or 2 and it gets much worse). TOR will manage though because they have depth and some good contracts to go along with it. Edmonton as we've already seen, will not. Toronto having to trade Zaitsev, Brown, Kapanen, Johnnson or even Nylander won't be the end of the world. Their problem will only come if a huge offer sheet comes for Marner and they decide to match (12+ - here's hoping someone does it)


At $9.5M, I would offer sheet the hell out of Marner. And probably do the same for Rantanen, too. Will TOR be able to match an offer sheet of $9.5M for Marner? You can certainly make the argument that Marner has been the Leafs MVP this season, so why should he take a team-friendly deal at around $9M? If he has a big playoffs his value could soar to well over $10M AAV. Keep in mind Kucherov, the best Winger in the league in my opinion, signed for $9.5M on what many said was a team friendly deal. But, there's no state income tax in FLA. If Kucherov had gone UFA he'd probably have been offered $11M+ AAV.
7 fév à 17h14
#216
LongtimeLeafsufferer
Rejoint: jui 2015
Messages: 24,670
Mentions "j'aime": 4,379
Quoting: Brian2016
At $9.5M, I would offer sheet the hell out of Marner. And probably do the same for Rantanen, too. Will TOR be able to match an offer sheet of $9.5M for Marner? You can certainly make the argument that Marner has been the Leafs MVP this season, so why should he take a team-friendly deal at around $9M? If he has a big playoffs his value could soar to well over $10M AAV. Keep in mind Kucherov, the best Winger in the league in my opinion, signed for $9.5M on what many said was a team friendly deal. But, there's no state income tax in FLA. If Kucherov had gone UFA he'd probably have been offered $11M+ AAV.


Let's get over this illusion that player...especially high income ones pay personal tax rates. The Leafs management have a plan...they're smart guys, but why did they box themselves in with the Nylander deal. Larkin, Pastreak were comparables. Is Matthews truly worthy of being paid 6% more than the third player in the league. Leafs management seemed pleased they are signing their RFAs to a hometown premium. Is Marner really deserving to be "well over 10M as you suggest? Only one other winger makes that much.
8 fév à 3h42
#217
Rejoint: déc 2017
Messages: 793
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Quoting: palhal
Let's get over this illusion that player...especially high income ones pay personal tax rates. The Leafs management have a plan...they're smart guys, but why did they box themselves in with the Nylander deal. Larkin, Pastreak were comparables. Is Matthews truly worthy of being paid 6% more than the third player in the league. Leafs management seemed pleased they are signing their RFAs to a hometown premium. Is Marner really deserving to be "well over 10M as you suggest? Only one other winger makes that much.


I don't think Marner is worth over $10M, but I also don't think Nylander is worth $7M. And unless Nylander demonstrates that he's capable of scoring close to 1 ppg and playing on the Leafs top PP unit, they'll never get any value out of his contract. Matthews just signed for over $11M and Marner has been every bit as vital to the Leafs success. Given that Marner is a Winger I'd have a difficult time valuing him under $9.5M when viewed in the context of Nylander's, Tavares', and Matthews' contracts.

Dubas couldn't waste Nylander in a hold-out given their window to contend for the Cup basically starts this season. He'd have been ripped apart by the media and fans. He must've assumed that they could go for it this season and trade him this summer if they absolutely need to. The only potential issue is that if Nylander's value drops this season b/c his play doesn't live up to the cap hit. If that happens, his trade value will be greatly diminished and they'd be stuck w/ him until he recovers.

All that being said, there's absolutely no question in my mind that Kucherov took a $1.5M AAV discount so the Lightning could keep him. Whether it was a team friendly discount or state tax discount doesn't really matter. He took below market value. Marner has made absolutely no indication that he's open to a team friendly deal at this point. Especially b/c none of the other 3 star players took one cent less than full market value.
9 fév à 2h21
#218
Rejoint: mar 2017
Messages: 163
Mentions "j'aime": 34
Modifié 9 fév à 2h33
Quoting: tkecanuck341
If an offer sheet comes in for Marner, Dubas should take the 4x 1st round picks and run. Solves all the Leafs cap problems and gives them an extra A or B prospect in each of the next four years? Yes please.


4 first round picks? Incorrect.
Over $8,118,641 to $10,148,302 = 2x 1st rounders, 1x 2nd, 1x 3rd
Time for Leaf nation to be very afraid of the offer sheet.
9 fév à 2h56
#219
Rejoint: mai 2016
Messages: 1,095
Mentions "j'aime": 372
Quoting: PrisonBull
4 first round picks? Incorrect.
Over $8,118,641 to $10,148,302 = 2x 1st rounders, 1x 2nd, 1x 3rd
Time for Leaf nation to be very afraid of the offer sheet.


To determine the compensation, the total contract amount is averaged over 5 years max.

So if he gets an offer sheet for 7 years at $7.25M+, then the cost is 4x 1st round picks. It's very unlikely Marner turns down a 8-year, $72M contract in favor of a 5-year, $50.7M contract that would result in the situation you describe.
10 fév à 7h04
#220
Rejoint: mar 2017
Messages: 163
Mentions "j'aime": 34
Quoting: tkecanuck341
To determine the compensation, the total contract amount is averaged over 5 years max.

So if he gets an offer sheet for 7 years at $7.25M+, then the cost is 4x 1st round picks. It's very unlikely Marner turns down a 8-year, $72M contract in favor of a 5-year, $50.7M contract that would result in the situation you describe.


That doesn't make any sense. Clearly an offer sheet of 5x $10.14M is in his favour. He would qualify as an UFA at the end of it and just coming into his peak at 26. Betting on himself and inflation would dictate he should be able to get a UFA contract for a lot more than $7.5M per year. With some wiggling, almost every NHL team can fit that $10M contract. Pens, Flames, Blues, Panthers, Sharks, TB, Sens, BJs, Preds and Islanders are among the teams not in possession of their own draft picks to make an offer sheet.

Teams with plenty of cap space to sign Marner and any other roster players: Detroit, Dallas, NYR, Buffalo*, Boston, Chicago, Carolina, Philly, Montreal, Vancouver, Colorado, New Jersey.

2019-20 Toronto has $7.5M in cap space with 8 forwards, 5 defensemen and 1 goalie.
awesome a aimé ceci.
10 fév à 13h31
#221
Rejoint: mai 2016
Messages: 1,095
Mentions "j'aime": 372
Quoting: PrisonBull
That doesn't make any sense. Clearly an offer sheet of 5x $10.14M is in his favour. He would qualify as an UFA at the end of it and just coming into his peak at 26. Betting on himself and inflation would dictate he should be able to get a UFA contract for a lot more than $7.5M per year. With some wiggling, almost every NHL team can fit that $10M contract. Pens, Flames, Blues, Panthers, Sharks, TB, Sens, BJs, Preds and Islanders are among the teams not in possession of their own draft picks to make an offer sheet.

Teams with plenty of cap space to sign Marner and any other roster players: Detroit, Dallas, NYR, Buffalo*, Boston, Chicago, Carolina, Philly, Montreal, Vancouver, Colorado, New Jersey.

2019-20 Toronto has $7.5M in cap space with 8 forwards, 5 defensemen and 1 goalie.


None of the teams that can fit him are Toronto. Sure, a team like Detroit or Dallas could try to offer sheet him, but then you're stuck playing in Detroit or Dallas for the next 5 years instead of playing for the odds on favorite to win the Cup over that timeframe. All of the teams on your list are many years away from being a Cup contender.

Marner has said that he doesn't want to negotiate during the season. However, it's very unlikely that he is still unsigned by July 1, meaning other teams won't have the option to offer him a contract. If it does get to July 1 and a deal isn't done and he signs an offer sheet that doesn't result in four 1sts, Toronto will match it immediately. However, if it's more than that, Dubas will take the 1st round picks and let Marner walk.
11 fév à 9h32
#222
Rejoint: fév 2019
Messages: 35
Mentions "j'aime": 4
Quoting: TorMapLeafs34
Best contract in the nhl.

Seth Jones
12 fév à 16h59
#223
Rejoint: aoû 2017
Messages: 1,031
Mentions "j'aime": 256
Quoting: HabsForEver
You say no defense and then follow it up with stats provided by an elite goaltender. Freddy can't play like that forever.


Rielly > Weber
Muzzin > Petry
Gards > Alzner
Dermott > Mete
Liljegren > Juulsen
Sandin > No Sergachev

WUT U MEAN?
12 fév à 17h04
#224
Rejoint: jan 2019
Messages: 1,140
Mentions "j'aime": 426
Quoting: drewjenks
Rielly > Weber
Muzzin > Petry
Gards > Alzner
Dermott > Mete
Liljegren > Juulsen
Sandin > No Sergachev

WUT U MEAN?


Haha

Rielly = Weber
Muzzin < Petry
Gardiner > Mete
Dermott = Benn

Then you list two AHL defensemen so....
12 fév à 19h19
#225
Rejoint: jun 2018
Messages: 2,549
Mentions "j'aime": 818
Quoting: HabsForEver
Haha

Rielly = Weber
Muzzin < Petry
Gardiner > Mete
Dermott = Benn

Then you list two AHL defensemen so....


You are unreasonably low on Dermott...
 
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